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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (16933)	4/11/2003 4:26:46 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

Some market analysis investorshub.com lurqer

To: lurqer who wrote (16933)	4/11/2003 4:31:32 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

More sentiment Message 18828748 lurqer

To: lurqer who wrote (16933)	4/11/2003 5:31:43 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 89467

thanks for newest Roach, he and I agree at global 2.5% actually he says 2.4% for 2003 GDP growth, but why quibble? I appreciate your kind drops at my feet I always pick them up in fact, my PC has a file of at least 40 Roach essays all dated just in case call me a packrat, call me anal (they both fit) the loudest point made is the severe drop in expected European GDP IMF pares from 2.3% to 1.1% in its revision Roach forecasts EuroZone 0.8% only if we see EuroZone GDP of between 0.8-1.1%, then this will put a sharp damper on any continued rise in the EURO currency versus the USDollar clownbuck which will give some illiterates encouragement to believe the US$ is ready to stage a comeback but such could not be farther from the truth (lit by reality) instead, I think it means the US$ is ready to find another currency to eat a large slice of its fat obese ass the Japanese YEN notice the agreed upon TORRID Asian GDP rates of growth IMF at 6.0% Roach at 4.6% (factoring in SARS) my conclusion: expect Asian currencies to rise versus US$ the Nikkei might be signaling this big move of course, it is also using a megaphone to announce a procession to the gallows for their major banks and some of their keiretsus Japan is now a mix of totally dead banks (holding trillions in underwater mortgages), bloodless conglomerates, and a few viable strong corporations (e.g. Sony, Toyota) ten years of Vampirism has bled the healthy business units dry in their sick demented form of conglomerate "life support" system of business management now some of them must die, sadly oh well, you cannot cheat the Grim Reaper for more than 10 yrs I expect the YEN to rise over the horizon versus the USDollar so Japan in 2003 may be the Land of the Rising YEN (unwillingly) I say unwillingly, since their economy will suffer on its export side badly they will compare poorly in US eyes on imported product prices oops, I guess building such an excess capacity Japanese economy dependent on US Fortunes might have been a mistake this will make for a much more dangerous spring/summer 2003 than we saw in 2002 last year was the EURO's turn this year is the YEN's turn with painful consequences on the Asian import side both IMF and Roach emphasize the gaping US trade gap and the monster Asian trade surplus in fact, IMF expects US trade gap to widen even further such would be near catastrophic an indication imho currency readjustments follow such pressures naturally such is the stuff of Supply & Demand Laws (Bank of Japan will soon be helpless to this flow) I expect the USDollar index to end 2003 somewhere like 86-88 it is now 100 and struggling I believe the widespread Asian currency appreciations might indeed pressure the Chinese govt to allow a YUAN increase that would and will confirm "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE" since that means the USA imports price inflation by the end of 2003, I expect CPI to be at 3.0% and rising with TENs yield at 4.5% and rising with mortgage rates 1% higher with residential real estate falling in price across the board / jim

To: lurqer who wrote (16933)	4/11/2003 5:58:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

jackass on the loose, Gold-Eagle reprinted Delusions article (they must be delusional) "Delusions -- Economy, War" gold-eagle.com this is part 1 of 3 one each week, just like before one or two of my delusions on the war turned out to be true, like quick victory in Iraq but is it over really ? way cool I hope a bunch drop by and check out my GoldenJackass website last time G-E reprinted, a few 1000 visited, a few 100 signed up / jim