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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neville H. J. Gorman who wrote (44089)	4/14/2003 5:41:50 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 52237

I believe II bulls are at the December highs, which would be a negative divergence from price. I think we could be headed down by Wednesday, but we'll see what MSFT and INTC have to say about that. -g So far earnings have been lukewarm, but I guess the market expected worse. I agree with you that it's probably best to wait for the turn. Cheers, Paul

To: Neville H. J. Gorman who wrote (44089)	4/15/2003 9:51:43 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

I know you didn't ask me- but wanted to point out this observation w.r.t. VIX: In reviewing the past couple years' chart data, I see that anytime the VIX has declined by 40% or more over a 4 week period, we've seen a good rally- even during the worst periods of the bear market. From the mid March VIX highs, the VIX has declined 37% as of yesterday. Conclusion- this rally should not be sold yet. It could run thru mid May, possibly longer. If I were basing it on the VIX alone, I'd wait until the VIX increases enough for its 10 day ma to cross above the 50. TW PS: The NH-NL chart is also suggesting to hold all longs.