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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (337)	4/15/2003 4:16:15 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 666

There are always technical bounces possible, as I outlined earlier (or as you said, there is no easy money on the short side). With the US leaning towards a war with Syria, the uncertainty shall rise and that could make the treasuries an interesting trade, once more. In that case, EUR shall cross 1.10. We have April, usually the last month in the bull half (despite tax related liquidations may have been low - its a bit like the 1999 situation, after the fall in 1998)>> "Sell in May and go away - this year again?" Valuations are not that what we call rock-bottom, with S&P P/E >> 30 and no-growth.

To: Londo who wrote (337)	4/15/2003 6:40:43 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 666

Just putting together my gameplan for today. Here goes: "Bush Picks Tax Day to Pitch Economic Plan On the day many Americans feel the pinch of federal income taxes, President Bush is renewing his fight for hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts over the next decade, a plan that has run into stiff resistance in Congress...." Well, you know as a replay of recent appearances, I could do the "sell as they speak" especially then when the index has had a strong showing into the talks but some constituents have a weakening. its not easy to gauge but once you have a plan it is doable, again. "Lowering the package from $550 billion to $350 billion would cost 425,000 jobs this year and next, he said." Bullshit! European socialists were telling us the same for half a century only to see state-"run" entities to be shut down nevertheless. But I concede, after Europeans went through all that, the Americans shall try it - perhaps it works over there...who knows? At least they've got children, and inflows of foreign workers who can pay the bill when our generation is buried. End of rant, back to the three dimensional pendulum. The german bund tanked much, to my chagrin, despite the euro is riding high. The pair trade still works as the US 10y is pretty weak. The current count is +11.5/64 against a loss of 10bps, with a massive support for the GBL at 113. Good luck today,