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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sea_urchin who wrote (18019)4/16/2003 3:17:52 PM
From: Ahda  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 81023
 
Still, 12.5% pa is an unacceptably large inflation rate, especially for an economy which grows at less than 3% pa and whose principal exports are derived from mining, agriculture and tourism and therefore have to be highly competitive. You may be unaware that the long-term SA Government treasury bond interest rate is 12% so it's clear that this represents a negative return on cash so invested. Foreigners who can take advantage of the appreciating currency, however, get the best of both worlds --- high interest plus a gain on the currency transaction, but only for as long as this windfall lasts. As you see, the situation is extraordinary --- an appreciating currency in the face of considerable inflation and minimal national growth. That's why I say the money must be coming in for a "non-investment" reason, in other words, to avoid confiscation, or whatever, somewhere else. What I find amazing is that the SA government is so complacent, in fact apparently happy, about a situation which is, in effect, destroying the main sources of income of the country.

>Very negative for gold as well as SA, I am so sorry.

>That's for sure. In fact, I can only envisage belt-tightening, chest pains and white knuckles from hanging-on grimly, in all countries, and for many years into the future. Meanwhile, the young people in most places, certainly in SA, have expectations of living in the lap of luxury and doing little work --- because that's how it was in the 1990s.

Here competition is so vast in the private field of manual labor that wage inflation is almost non existent. The exclusion would be in large scale operations that mandate wage increases.

There are far less hopes here of easy street. Here it is not uncommon to have twelve hour days as the non written part of the contract. I believe there is as lack of higher paying jobs for grads which ends up as an increase in applicants for post doctorate positions.

Tough times where the key to success is starting to look more like a measure of guts.



To: sea_urchin who wrote (18019)4/17/2003 8:04:16 AM
From: mcg404  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 81023
 
Searle: <However, according my simplistic view, in an open market a markup in prices doesn't, on its own, cause inflation >

Here is something from the MDG board that supports and expands on your view:

messages.yahoo.com

<So, as I see it, inflation is the ultimate result of an increase in the national money-supply (ie printing more money or creating debt) and is instituted as a means to avoid recession by the state which attempts to intervene as a purchaser on account of the lack of purchasing power of the populace.

Presumably, for inflation to occur world-wide all governments have to feel like this>

Or they wish to reduce the relative value of their currencies (competitive devaluations) to maintain export driven economies?

<In the late 1970s it was because of the massive increase in the oil price and the refusal of OPEC countries to accept US dollars for the purchase of their oil. >

Have you seen this argument for the war?

rense.com

"This lengthy essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the "petro-dollar" and the unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an alternative oil transaction currency...The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 80 cents), and has actually made off like a bandit considering the dollar's steady depreciation against the euro...Another underreported story from this summer regarding the other OPEC 'Axis of Evil' country and their interest in the selling oil in euros, Iran. (3) Iran's proposal to receive payments for crude oil sales to Europe in euros instead of U.S. dollars is based primarily on economics, Iranian and industry sources said. But politics are still likely to be a factor in any decision, they said, as Iran uses the opportunity to hit back at the U.S. government, which recently labeled it part of an "axis of evil."

John



To: sea_urchin who wrote (18019)4/17/2003 9:32:38 AM
From: mcg404  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 81023
 
More Dollar Troubles...

quote.bloomberg.com

Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?:

By William Pesek Jr.

Tokyo, April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, dropped a bombshell recently. It's considering dropping the U.S. dollar for the euro in its oil and gas trades...