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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9495)	4/17/2003 11:53:59 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95525

RtS, I maybe one of those, those who remain too bullish, but here I go again, Stan :0) Tokyo Stocks Up; Nokia, Data Boosts Techs 17 minutes ago Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo! The Nikkei likes the B 2 B story.news.yahoo.com By Daniel Hauck TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese stocks ended morning trading higher on Friday, with Rohm Co and other high-tech firms up after a forecast from Finland's Nokia (news - web sites) of solid growth and encouraging North American economic data. News that North American chip equipment orders edged up in March boosted techs, helping push the Nikkei average up 0.66 percent to 7,873.81, after a 0.73 percent fall on Thursday. The broader TOPIX index rose 0.31 percent to 791.98. "Tech shares have been fueled by Nokia and the jump in the Nasdaq index, and the chip figures were also encouraging given that the Iraq (news - web sites) issue loomed large in March," said Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. Statistics released by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) on Thursday showed a ratio of orders to billings -- known as the book-to-bill ratio -- of 0.99 for March, compared to 0.98 for February, a sign recovery may be on the way for the industry following its worst ever downturn. That helped send chip equipment giant Tokyo Electron up 2.93 percent to 4,570 yen, while custom chipmaker Rohm was up 3.54 percent at 12,000 yen. Other tech firms also received a boost from Nokia's forecast that second-quarter sales at its cellphone unit would rise between four and 12 percent, a step up from the one percent growth in the first quarter. Cellphone components maker Murata Manufacturing Co Ltd ended the morning up 0.95 percent at 4,270 yen, while Matsushita Electric Industrial Co Ltd was up 1.83 percent at 948 yen. Other notable gainers included Wal-Mart Stores Inc's affiliate Seiyu Ltd Japan's fourth-largest supermarket chain saw its shares rise 9.73 percent to 282 yen after a report Seiyu plans to shed 2,500 jobs, or 40 percent of its full-time positions, over the next three years to cut costs. Trading edged lower ahead of Friday's U.S. market holiday, with 418.74 million shares changing hands on the main board, down from 424 million on Thursday morning. Gainers outnumbered decliners 761 to 539. SUPPLY PROBLEM STILL WEIGHS Data from a Philadelphia Federal Reserve (news - web sites) survey showing U.S companies reporting "a fairly high degree of optimism" about the future also provided cheer to Japan's share markets, which have been dependent on the U.S. markets for buying impetus with a dearth of good news on the domestic front. "But it's too early yet to make much of a judgment on the possible post-Iraq bounceback in the U.S. economy," said Daiwa's Nomaguchi. Investors also said any gains would continue to be limited by fears of selling by corporate pension funds, which are expected to unload widely held shares before returning part of their pension assets to the state. Takeda Chemical Industries Ltd, whose shares have been battered by the pension issue despite strong earnings prospects, fell 1.25 percent to 3,940 yen in morning trading after a short-covering fueled Thursday rebound. "Since the share price had fallen so low and their earnings are so solid, the shares rebounded," said Yoshihisa Okamoto, Senior Vice President at Fuji Investment Management said. "But the pressure on these shares is going to continue, with the supply problem possibly peaking in the summer."

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9495)	4/18/2003 11:04:52 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95525

RtS, I have doubts and always will have doubts and I'm not out to prove anyone here wrong. >The btb is not that good< Suppose bookings and billings both doubled next month. BtB would stay the same, but I would say we had an improvement. :) Gottfried

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9495)	4/18/2003 11:42:27 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95525

RtS, I think you need to be careful to not use last year as a guide for this year. Last year at this time, we were still reeling from 9/11, Enron/Wcom/Etc., Israel/Palestine seemed to be escalating (Jenin...), OBL+terrorism, many were convinced that the "housing bubble" was about to collapse, and other issues were weighing heavy on the market. A lot of the stocks we follow here were substantially higher and their prospect weren't a lot rosier than we're seeing today. I'm not suggesting throwing caution to the wind at this juncture but I have a hard time thinking that we'll see a repeat of last year's market, where the doom and gloom brought us to extremes by Oct. While the business outlook isn't that great, a majority of the fat has been trimmed and continues to be addressed as companies increasingly focus on profitability and (potential) growth. Especially with the NASDAQ, I find it hard to believe we will see a repeat of last spring/summer/fall where we went from 1600 to 1100. Not that it can't happen but I think this type of scenario is too bearish given the current circumstances. mh