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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Chip McVickar who wrote (8305)4/19/2003 7:06:47 AM
From: Berk  Respond to of 207042
 
Chip, Cary has a very good understanding of Moore's law and its impact. You might want to go over to this thread and the AMAT thread where similar topics have been discussed.

"This illustrates my point vis a vis ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM. It isn't random for them. It isn't about the right product. It isn't about cost cutting. It isn't about niche products. It IS broadbrush. The "broadbrush" is advanced technology products. These companies have a very broad customer base across many industries and geographic areas. They are doing well because they are in customer's products that didn't exist in 2000 or had much less capability in 2000. They enable their customers products with their leading edge capability products. The recovery will proceed in earnest when there is a critical mass of technology products that didn't exist in 2000. I believe that the above 4 will be in the early stages of such a recovery and will participate and benefit at a rate greater than the recovey. If the signs are correct, the prices of these companies have a huge potential upside to potential downside ratio. Barring a complete economic disaster, the downside for these are diminishing and previous lows are highly unlikely to repeat.

Consider: In 2000, an FPGA with 1M gates cost about $1000. XLNX announced a 90 nanometer FPGA with 1M gates for about $30. It will ship later this year. "

Message 18858956