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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (258)	4/19/2003 11:35:26 AM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4913

Other than economic depression and bankruptcy wiping the slate clean how does a transfer of wealth happen to cure all of the above problems? Ask yourself why is it that this guy thinks that wealth needs to be transferred rather then created.

To: mishedlo who wrote (258)	4/19/2003 1:55:53 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 4913

big trouble ahead on pension incomes my father was just notified that TIAA-CREF gave him a $10k annual pay cut this is perhaps the best run pension program in the nation for academics and nonprofit organization workers Pops is 83 and spry as a young dog with very recent recollections of chasing bitches in heat he was a university professor for almost 40 yrs in 2001 he got a $7k pay cut in 2002 he got a $1500 pay cut now a $10k cut they wont starve, but they will cut back in travel the damned inheritance might get dipped into !!! / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (258)	4/19/2003 5:27:44 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 4913

>>Is the economic rebuild of Iraq going to save the US? Is that what we are banking on here. More contracts for HAL, Betchel, etc, etc. Isn't that a drop in the bucket compared to the overall economy? Will those jobs be local or in Iraq, or perhaps even China (where stuff is made)?<< Smells a lot like a fiscal stimulus program, doesn't it -- that and bringing a larger supply of oil on at the margin when prices are rising naturally. I may be wrong, but I think that some folks saw this as a win-win-win policy 1) fiscal stimulus 2) cheaper oil -- next step when lower rates don't stimulate anything 3) "freedom" for Iraqis -- Problem is with each turn: 1) this sort of fiscal stimulus is actually destructive to our economy. Any capital investment spending here that might result (surely not much) would be to support the "temporary" rebuilding of Iraq (there'd be no sustaining demand underlying it -- unless we were at war with the "next in line") -- while most of the "real" capital investment is going to be placed over there. Nation building amounts to wealth transfer and inefficient wealth transfer at that (let's not blow something up and say that we did -- then just give some company or some Iraqis money out of the public coffers -- at least we'd save the blowing up and the rebuilding parts). 2) Those looking to cheaper oil maybe right for a while -- more supply at the margin helps, but for a short time -- but even with the economic slowdown, demand is growing, while supply isn't -- just a temporary fix. 3) Freedom for Iraqis is the feel good, ad hoc, justification for the whole thing. (On the day they pulled that statue down -- it would have been folly to mention any reservation to any flag waving supporter of W.) While Sadam was in power Iraqis were not free in many regards, but especially with respect to voicing dissent. Now Iraqis are free to voice their dissent or disgust, but Sadam is gone. Who is going to be the target of their anger or dissent?? >>Look now at the laws passed to restrict bankruptcies. The credit card industry wanted a bill passed to protect them. If I am not mistaken this bill passed but I do not remember the details.<< I think this failed the last time because someone tried to attach something the Repubs didn't like?? This is one of the most ludricous things I have heard of -- our government recklessly, encouraged and hailed this massive expansion of credit and then seeks to change the rules to hang the suckers they have milked and defrauded. Between the bankers, the Fed and the IRS, the working poor have literally become peons, begging at the Company store for a little bit more credit. More than anything in the coming TL & EV, I want to see banks allowed fail and the other moneylenders who thought they were implicitly underwritten by taxpayers to engage in any kind of risky activity they desired. Anyone else noticing what has happened to crude and NG prices since our victory was acknowledged??

To: mishedlo who wrote (258)	4/20/2003 12:58:01 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 4913

Mish: Good comments. As far as I am concerned, market participants can drag this airplant to even higher altitudes, but living with reduced oxygen can bring on a galaxy of nasty illnesses. (g) I'm probably "early" as noted on Friday, but I am tip-toeing back in. One can always "box" positions if they start to create pain. Best, Earlie