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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sun-tzu who wrote (37214)	4/20/2003 10:15:27 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57110

I'm not sure I agree. Yes, it is a measure of the implied volitility of the market, but there is complacency/fear factor that drives options buying decisions. If I think the market is going to go up, I am going to be willing to pay less for those hedging options. As far as the number of bears left, First, I don't think that SI is representative sample, but more importantly, I notice a few less bears than a few months ago. And the fact is, we are far from nobody giving a shit. People in silicon valley are still expecting to get rich off of options. There are still a hell of a lot of bulls left for this to be the end of the bear.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (37214)	4/20/2003 10:40:56 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57110

I forgot to mention that the VIX can go counter to the expected movement for periods of time. The vix continued down in March 2002 for three weeks after the top was put in. I keep bringing up this period because there were quite a few similarities to the current conditions, both in media and message board sentiment and on the charts. There are differences too, some that have me examining my bearish views very closely, but the bull has yet to prove itself to me.