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To: mishedlo who wrote (236503)	4/20/2003 8:38:28 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

misheldo, I am not following the Swiss Frank and as such it is difficult for me to comment on that chart. The Swiss Frank is traded on a different basis than the EUR for a variety of reason and connected to the Swiss secrecy rules in banking. If you would ask me regarding the EUR/USD I would comment as I mentioned to you before that I speculate that by the end of the year the EUR will be 5% to 7% higher. But wild fluctuation are still in the cards. The situation is especially difficult to predict due to the results of the war in Iraq. Europe is in worst economic situation than the US with much less flexibility. The only thing that is going for the EUR and against the USD, is the US trade deficit. ON the other hand a recession in the US will be devastating for the EZ IMHO. The Iraq wild card is in the fact, that it seems to me from the news I read, that the US is not well prepared for the aftermath of the war and France will do what ever it takes to install an Islamic regime in Iraq with the blessing of the Iranian mullah's and Saudi Clan. My take on Iraq is that the middle class there is relatively much more educated than in Iran or Saudi Arabia and they may not let some crazy fundamentalist supported by Iran and Saudi Arabia to be taking over power and rule Iraq. Democracy in Iraq will signal the end of their regime. Therefor we are witnessing a very intense power struggle between forces which support tyranny from Iran and Saudi Arabia and democracy from the free world ...... which strugle will also inpact the USD. The first shot in the fight of power and in an act that represents what arab usually do, was the assassination of their pro American religious leader Sheik Abdel Majid al-Khoei in Najaf ......... were at his first appearance of re-conciliation he was hacked to death by supporters of Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim supported/ financed by Iran ........ an event that surprised me by it's violence and unpredictability. Now we only must hope that also Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim will face the same faith as Sheik Abdel Majid al-Khoei ...... as he is strongly anti US and pro an Islamic state similar to present regime in Iran. IMHO the EUR/USD will bounce now in accordance with who will have a chance to be in power in Iraq, even that the trend will be up for the EUR, if Germany will not teeter on default. In case that the politics in the ME will be tilted toward true democracy and as planed by the freedom loving nations I see a stabilization of the US currency even the current trade deficits. Further IMHO the US administration is for a weaker USD as it will spur economic growth and more so US companies will have an easier time to bid for $50 to $150 billion in projects in the ME during the next 2 to 3 years. The cost of the war estimated around $30 is minimal if compared to the slide in energy prices and as such I do not think it will affect the currency markets. Therefore the focus should be on ME politics & Russia which may abandon their "new friends" in France and Germany. A regime change in Germany is quite a real possibility and the rise of the CDU to power will get the US support behind Germany and the EUR may strengthen. as to the "long term chart" history rimes but does not repeat itself. So much for now <GGG>