To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (236783 ) 4/22/2003 10:46:08 AM From: zonder Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 436258 According to Chaos Theory (as explained in "Jurassic Park", if you have not heard of it anywhere else) a butterfly batting its wings in Asia CAN also cause a storm in America. Likewise, Shiites in Iraq MIGHT have a tiny little bit of influence on USD/EUR rate, but not much, I am afraid. Alternatively, you might like to check out websites that focus on currency trading for information on the hows and whys of sudden movements in exchange rates. Here, for example:forexnews.com April 22, 7:00 AM: EUR/$..1.0963 $/JPY..119.77 GBP/$..1.5749 $/CHF..1.3727Dollar Loses to Higher Yields and Economic Recovery Fears by Jes Black At 8:30:00 AM Canada February Wholesale Trade (exp n/f, prev n/a) At 10:40 AM Chicago Fed Pres Moscow speaks At 4:45PM San Fran Fed Pres Parry speaks The dollar plunged in London trade, as European traders returned from holidays and pushed the greenback down over 1% against the majors despite an overall lack of concern seen in US equity futures. Economic uncertainty continues to dog the dollar and while US growth prospects still look more favorable than that of Europe and Japan, E-12 and UK interest rates are higher. This favorable interest rate differential manifested itself today in the euro/yen cross reaching a new 4-year high, and the aussie/dollar cross reaching a 3-year peak above 0.62 - showing investors' appetite for a higher yielding currency. The dollar's fall also confirmed yesterday's surge in gold prices, which rose over $6 to just below technical resistance at $335. With a second half recovery now becoming the recurring hope, hard assets are again on the rise. Another likely cause is the $65 plunge in gold prices since February which put the metal in a vastly oversold status. Despite the dollar's sharp fall to new lows today and yesterday's strong rally in gold, stocks continue to trade near this month's highs. This reflects the unease seen by international investors in the increasing bullishness in the stock market following the US victory in Iraq and the lack of dire earnings reports. In the absence of any economic news today, focus will remain on earnings announcements. Some 40 S&P companies report today, the biggest so far. But traders are growing increasingly worried about the economy and will want to see some of the more important economic releases this week, including the first release of Q1 GDP the April University of Michigan sentiment survey, the Fed's Beige book, March durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims. Euro and USD index The euro soared to news highs across the board, breaking above a previous one-month high in the dollar, nearing a 1-1/2 year peak against the Swiss franc and reaching a new 4-year high of 131.75 yen and 69.71 pence. With the dollar on the ropes, the USD index also fell back to key support at 98.80, its April low. The 98.80 level is now critical support; because a move below it would likely carry the dollar back to its March lows of 97.57 in the index, and then possibly to new lows around 95/96.