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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (200)4/22/2003 10:06:48 AM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4232
 
Right Peter.

These numbers:

Canada - 12:54 (22%)
Hong Kong - 94:436 (21%)
Singapore - 16:104 (15%)

Are what I have been describing as the upper bound of the mortality data. I call it that because there are likely people getting mild cases of the virus who are recovering without getting into the denominator.

The upper bound is huge.

There is some utility in looking at mortality to the general population which is what I did with the Spanish flu numbers. With world population at 6.3B - it gives some perspective to the rates.

ij



To: Biomaven who wrote (200)4/22/2003 5:06:16 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Respond to of 4232
 
<If you look at the ratio of dead:recovered in places with reliable statistics you get a pretty grim outlook:

Canada - 12:54 (22%)
Hong Kong - 94:436 (21%)
Singapore - 16:104 (15%)>

Biom, that sets the upper limit. Those dead vs those infected sets the lower limit. The actual outcome should be about 7%, skewed to those who are old and sick.

Mqurice


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