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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (95788)	4/23/2003 2:40:15 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I am not quite sure about this myself. Personally, I think a pro-Israel government is in the best interest of Iran, but that is another story. The best I can come up with is there are 3 reasons for this. The first is that on ideological grounds, Khomeini and his gang could not accept the Jerusalem at the hands of non-Muslims. For them it was Crusades revisited. The second reason has to do with Lebanon. Some of the early founders of the Islamic republic had been part of Lebanonese [sp?] Hizbollah and had very strong ties with Lebanonese Shiite (others had more "worldly" connections, like arms dealing). The ties go both ways, many of Lebanonese Shiite can trace their ancestry back to Iran. These two factors led to early support of Palestinians and anti-Israel policies. The Palestinian support, or rather PLO support, died off rather quickly in Iran. But the ties with Lebanon were harder to break. Eventually this anti-Israel stance gave Iran great influence in the middle east (which previous regimes in Iran have never had). It will be a strategic mistake (not to mention impractical) for Iran to give that up easily. I doubt if Israel will have an embassy in Tehran during my life time. But if the reformers win the current stalemate, hostilities towards Israel will ease and eventually will disappear all together. This will be true even if only moderate Islamists win (there are actually a good number of "un-Islamists" among the reformers). ST