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To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (71947)	4/23/2003 9:59:01 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

Thanks for the interesting post about the BKX. It looks like this index made no real progress since 1998. In fact, I think it is possible that the BKX has seen the orthodox top of its Bull market as early as in July of 1998, right before it made that great impulsive plunge to the mid-500 level, to which this Bear hasn't taken it down again - yet. Could it be that what followed was a multi-year consolidation? Right now the index faces its 200 week MA just above, as well as, of course, the resistance near 800. Will watch.

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (71947)	4/24/2003 12:59:07 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 209892

mc -- you aren't being cute at all. i agree that how the BKX handles the 800 area will tell us a ton about whether this is a rally that's got more legs. I would expect a pullback here, though we may go a few points higher first. 803 area is where C = A (if this is a C up), and 806 is another recent high. Still, the question is what happens then. I have no real idea, to be perfectly honest. My gut tells me the banks are gonna fall and lead the next down, when it comes, and take out the recent lows. HOWEVER, my gut isn't saying whether that comes from higher levels... and my chart reading isn't telling me anything conclusive either. I was hoping YOU could solve it, mannnnn. the freep