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To: JRI who wrote (71950)	4/23/2003 7:36:32 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 209892

sure, another bear with a burnt bottom, like moi? my only saving grace is that i commit a small % of my capital to shorts an can tolerate the pain here. another 500 dow points and i will be feeling it though...

To: JRI who wrote (71950)	4/23/2003 7:51:04 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

It has been brought to my attention that the last leg of the fall rally was wave C and I didn't buy that idea, but I am starting to buy it Gee I wonder who did that?-vbg I do chat with him from time to time as he is just about the best I have ever read. We both use a very similar TICK indicator to indicate major tops (he uses a 21-hour MA). Anyway, I pointed out that the October rally was a complete 3 wave move and that it looked like a 5 wave move off that Dec 2 top which made it distinctly possible that we had a complete correction and were pointed down now. He thought it was a good alternate and I gave it a 50-50 shot. Now I have upped that a bit to 60-40 and sounds like he has upped the probability as well. This is based mainly on the TICK and the nature of this "rally" which is anything but 'C' like on the DOW. If all the DOW is in here off March 10 is a '2' wave, then it may very well fizzle out at around 8610 where c=.618 x a.

To: JRI who wrote (71950)	4/23/2003 10:56:56 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Yes, after 'big C' comes a 'big short'. This can not be a surprise to you. Even if you ignore the prose posted here, just the fact that I am labeling it 'C' is all one need read to know what mho is for the next trade. However, his statement: "Despite what everyone is claiming, the charts aren't showing a breakout here." is patently false. All sorts of important charts are breaking out from all-time bear channels and downtrend lines. Major breakouts abound. Cheers, Allan

To: JRI who wrote (71950)	4/23/2003 11:38:22 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

He needs to do the same thing many others need to do, which is go back to his seventh grade grammar book and re-read the chapters on paragraph development. Where are his details and examples? Like Allan mentioned earlier about the author claiming no charts showing breakouts here, how about some significant examples? And I'd like to see some specific details of the indicators or patterns showing this "market that is making ending formations on the charts." Are we just supposed to take his word for it? Or (worse yet) as fellow bears I guess we are presumed to already know what he is specifically referring to, and on which timeframe chart, too. Without the aforementioned details and examples (and above all - charts) his essay is just a lot of bearish hot air to me, and I certainly ain't no bull. As impressive as these sentiments sound at first blush, they are actually quite hollow when you pick apart various sections of it. In other words, he might have had a good piece there - but he blew it by not developing his ideas enough to be really convincing.