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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (32224)	4/23/2003 10:58:45 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Pezz, The trading in HK/China share markets today are beginning to reflect fear of doom, starting to wobble closer to their respective tipping points and sway nearer their natural rhythmic collapse frequencies. I figure, barring a last minute miracle, a quarter of HK small businesses can collapse within the coming 90 days, and the place will end up looking like the financial deathwatch ward. The cleansing process may soon speed past the point of no return. My cash troops are arrayed at the event horizon of swirling quicksand, readying for one last expedition before the next event-triggered looting. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (32224)	4/25/2003 5:45:54 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report by SARS embedded reporter Jay Chen of the BBR thread: I am following up on our recent discussion regarding due diligence and the risk-managed way to buildup a position. I depend more on the latter than rely on the former. Today I doubled my LTBH position in PetroChina @ HKD 1.64/shr. The way the position was built up is as follows: (a) Bought a dollop on October 30th, 2000, at HKD 1.66/shr (b) Shorted 4 dollops of PTR March strike 20 puts on October 9th, 2002, at USD 1.30/shr © Bought another dollop on November 27th, 2002, at HKD 1.50 (d) Sold a dollop on January 8th, 2003, at HKD 1.55 (e) 4 dollops of PTR March puts expired worthless, allowing me to recognize premium proceeds as earned income. (f) Collected HKD 0.24/shr of dividends since October 30th, 2000 So, the new aggregate average cost is HKD 1.30, with the older lot having a cost basis of HKD 0.95/shr. I doubled my PetroChina bet not because I know what is going on through diligent micro research, but because my original macro-view that enabled my starting stake has been validated by interim dividend of 15% in 28 months, and now, confirmed by Mr. Omaha Message 18881372 . Chugs, Jay References: A Message 14760610 November 8th, 2000 … I have turned maximally conservative sometime ago, fearful, terrified, cowered and otherwise in fear for my financial equilibrium and well being. I have retreated to 9% equity … I had newly bought some … PetroChina (857.hk) shares B Message 18415900 January 8th, 2003 Hello Pezz, Another Report: I just sold off these trades ... Message 18282552 November 27th, 2002 The pre-open orders mentioned here Message 18282486 were fully executed thus (b) Petro China @ HK$ 1.50 (c) China Shipping at HK$ 1.55 ... at 1.55 and 1.80 respectively, scoring a gain, of course. Preparing for April 2003 blood-letting;0) Chugs, Jay P.S. I still hold earlier tranches and dollops of Petro China, China Shipping. C Message 18731678 March 21th, 2003 Hello Pezz, Tonight’s Report: (a) I am counting on the following shorted Puts (MO and PTR) to expire worthless, in my favor, as usual, allowing me to abscond with mucho premium for nothing down:0) Message 18092103 October 9th, 2002 Hello Pezz, Today's Report: (a) Shorted Philip Morris (MO) March Strike 32.5 Puts @ 2.35/shr premium (b) Shorted China Petroleum (PTR) March Strike 20 Puts @ 1.3/shr premium [Ref: Petro China (HK.857 baby.boom.com.hk , and quote.bloomberg.com. )]

To: pezz who wrote (32224)	4/25/2003 12:38:51 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Midnight Report: (a) Closed out this short NEM June Put 25 position at 0.60/shr Message 18765884 and realized a 1.30/shr profit, freeing up capacity for re-loot later; (b) Closed out this short AOL July Put 10 position at 0.15/shr Message 18552162 and realized a 1.10/shr profit, leaving the long stock and short covered call position dangling to die a natural death at expiration time; and (c) Closed out this short QCOM July Call 37.5 position at o.55-0.60/shr Message 18500597 and recognizing a 4.20/shr profit, leaving the long stock and short covered call position for summer rally harvest time. Chugs, Jay

To: pezz who wrote (32224)	5/2/2003 4:41:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello Pezz, Today's Report: (a) Following this LTBH move Message 18882108 , I tripled my existing position so as to build speculative trading inventory of Petro China (PTR in US, 857 in HK) shares, in response to investor electorates now voting for and may soon clamore for said shares as indicated by Message 18906034 Message 18906036 I never seem to hold enough of whatever is rising;0) (b) Added 10% more to current paper gold position, reducing SARS-infected HKD that is a proxy to deficit-contaminated USD, getting in position for more investor electorates casting ballot. Chugs, Jay