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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (559)	4/24/2003 12:57:59 AM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

That still would seem to indicate that the time period to recapture CPGA would still be well in excess of One Year.. I stand by my earlier [corrected] statement -- the time to recapture these particular adds will be, on average, over a year (which doesn't present a problem, given the churn rate). This would be a huge issue if we were not engaged in a period of remarkable subscriber growth. If we were, at this time, expecting subscriber growth to level off or decline, you could argue that these numbers won't work. However, XM's subscriber levels are obviously growing exponentially and will continue to do so for several years. Over the next 2-3 years, we'll see CPGA shrink to the $50 range, and over ensuing years even further. Meanwhile, the number of active subs will continue to grow until we're looking at AT LEAST 10M, and more likely several times that. Should subs of 10M not materialize this company is less attractive. But I believe the likelihood of 10-20M subs over the coming several years is extremely high. But, it say the Average "what they call SAC" is actually going to INCREASE on a per subscriber basis... That one has me scratching my head!!! Maybe you call it obvious.. I find it perplexing Reread it. The quote was, I believe: Our average subscriber acquisition cost was $116.03 during 2002. The amount of these total costs will vary in future years, but is expected to increase in the next year as the number of subscribers and revenue increase. Total cost is not average cost. Total cost obviously will increase as the number of subs increase exponentially; however, those exponentially increasing sub numbers cause the average to drop -- dramatically.