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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (96053)	4/24/2003 3:57:27 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

C2, I continue to have trouble relying on deterrence as a policy when dealing with a rogue state with crazy leaders with a few nukes. Post Cuban MC deterrence worked great. Before that there were several very dangerous moments. Cuban missile crisis could have turned out real ugly. Having said all of this, what alternative to deterrence is there? Appeasement of NK wont work. Trusting them didnt work. Preemption to costly for all parties. Hopefully a regional solution can be found. Perhaps the chinese who have been chastened by the sars crisis, may actually have to control this situation as a great power, not just a wannabee. Maybe its time to turn off the oil again. Mike

To: carranza2 who wrote (96053)	4/24/2003 4:36:55 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 281500

<Deterrence is relative. How much damage can one or two NK nukes do?> Placed at the center of a major urban area, several million casualties. The difference between 0 and 1 nuke, is greater than the difference between 1 and 1000 nukes. The nuclear deterrent is not a sliding scale, it is an on-off switch. Currently "on" in NK. We are reduced to taking the same measures against NK, that we did against Mao's China and Stalin's Russia. Deterrence, economic pressure, proxy fights, vigilance. The only optimistic thing is, these measures have a better chance of working against NK. If, if, if, the Chinese and South Koreans cooperate. Regime Change, at least imposed from outside, is not an option. If nukes are used, we lose, no matter what else happens. JS@nothinglimitedaboutit.com