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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (17021)	4/25/2003 12:28:22 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Nobody wants to look like a fool buying or selling at the wrong time. And the general investing public has been cast in this straight jacket as nothing ever seems to change. Time will tell of course, but I think it is fair to say that never before in our lifetimes has the public been made so keenly aware that they have been played for fools by "the boyz". When the big firm settlement is made public, as expected any day now, its going to be some extra salt rubbed into those wounds. Perhaps I'm giving them too much credit, but I don't expect to see the kind of public panic buying that fueled the bubble again for a long time. You talk about an absence of sellers, and I can't disagree with that, but I'm not seeing a lot of anxious buyers either. I see some powerful money willing to prop the market up when it starts to fall, but not much follow through. The war sentiment did spark a pretty good run the last few weeks, and the boyz played it for all it was worth, but that's pretty much played out now. I think a slow steady climb from here supported by an improving economy (yet to be established) will do a lot more to pull in sideline money than another 10 to 15% ramp job in a week or two. They will, and already are, looking for pullbacks to get back in. And if they don't get them, a lot of hurting folks just might sit tight. From the way I hear people talk, there is still a lot of market exposure by the public. Their capital has been decimated many times, but many have held on to their beaten down funds (I still have some) and would be perfectly happy to see the market ramped up by somebody else's money as they sit back and watch their holdings appreciate. That is a whole different thing than throwing new money at the market. We might even begin to see a lot of folks bailing out instead of risking giving it all back if the shares they hold start becoming worth a reasonable fraction of what they paid for them.