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Technology Stocks : XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pcstel who wrote (578)	4/25/2003 1:02:39 PM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3386

That depends if you consider them "subscription models"? Which is how I classify them! You prefer to classify them as some sort of "new paradigm". Of course; there is no discernable relationship between other subscription models and SDARS -- other than the term "subscription". This is like saying that salad oil and Sunny Delight have the same business model because they're both sold in bottles at the grocery store. You're seeing a nexus that doesn't exist. I guess that is one of the differences in our opinions. You take projections and present them as FACT.. as in will be This isn't necessarily true. However, at this point, I have seen XMSR's management perform flawlessly, and so I do have a lot of confidence in their projections. In addition, the history of what has actually happened as well as what my good sense tells me will happen support these projections. I contrast that with SIRI, where management has failed miserbly at every turn, and I have near-zero confidence in their ability to hit targets. If there is any who does not feel "comfortable" with the meaning of this term I asked, and you continue to evade. "Financial Metrics for a Given Device" is meaningless. It could mean revenue, cost, margin, or any number of other things. Perhaps the reason you're having trouble with this stuff is because you don't adhere to precise terminology. I'm not into using semantics to prolog a discussion. So has Dephi "made it clear" Crystal. Perhaps you ought to follow up on Delphi's financial presentations if you are truly interested. Do you have any "expertise" in these manufacturing processes? No. But I do have some awareness of what it costs to produce these items in volume. And it isn't much. Well the technology has come a long way in the last year. The technology isn't the problem; DirecTV in a car 10 years from now is certainly doable. The question is whether there is a market, and the answer is "yes, but EXTREMELY limited". Sorry, I don't consider some guy posting "wild speculation" regarding "new frontier financial models" on a Financial Chat Board as "incontravertible evidence." If you were on top of this stock you would have more to go on than my posts. While I find your posts, to date, on this subject to be relevant to "subscriber models" in general, I just think you're relying too heavily on some nonexistent connection between other products and XM. In particular, your preconceptions about the cost structure just make your general "subscriber model" totally collapse when applied to XMSR. It is no coincidence that this cost structure is what makes XM so attractive. You speak of "models" frequently, but you seem to not comprehend the limitations of the "models" you rely on. You can't just take a "subscriber model" and say, "well, this is good for all subscription based businesses". It doesn't work that way. Much more appropriate is a serious gross margin/fixed & variable cost analysis, which will tell you more about the business than anything else. The most important measures in a subscriber based business are total fixed cost, variable costs per sub, and the number of subs. Period. Nothing else matters. You pick any subscriber-based business and compare these data with XMs. I'll wager you can't point to a subscriber based business that is more attractive when properly evaluated within the relevant sub ranges.