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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: steve harris who wrote (399634)4/27/2003 8:25:11 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 769667
 
Meanwhile, back on the campaign trail.

Bush has advantages his father lacked in '92
By Ron Hutcheson
Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - President Bush has followed his father's path for most of his life, but now he has a chance to break the pattern by winning a second term in the White House.

After the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, one line of instant analysis held that Bush could suffer the same political fate as his dad: riding high in polls after winning a war with Iraq, only to lose re-election because voters were unhappy with a weak economy.

This President Bush is hardly a shoo-in, but he has several advantages that elder Bush lacked in 1992.

Bush enters his re-election campaign backed by a unified Republican Party, a highly disciplined political team and realistic expectations of a record-breaking campaign bankroll. Also unlike his father, he doesn't have the baggage of a broken promise on tax cuts, he doesn't have to worry about a Republican challenger from the right such as Pat Buchanan and he doesn't have an ornery Ross Perot threatening to run as an independent.

In 1992, Perot spent about $50 million in the campaign's closing weeks bashing the elder Bush's economic stewardship.

And this time, unlike 1992, the war isn't really over. Continuing problems in post-war Iraq and the ever-present threat of terrorism mean that voters are likely to focus on domestic issues and national security concerns. That's bad news for America but good news for Bush politically, because voters give him high marks as commander in chief.

Republicans hope to leverage that advantage by holding their convention in New York in September 2004, less than two weeks before the third anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, attack on the World Trade Center. That offers Bush a prime-time opportunity to remind voters of his leadership when the nation was shaken after 9-11.

"Because of terrorism, the security issue will not go away," said Republican consultant Charles Black, who helped run the elder Bush's campaign and serves as an informal adviser to the current president. "In `91, when the Gulf war was over, it was over."

In fact, two wars ended in 1991: the Persian Gulf War and the Cold War. Although the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the Soviet Union hung on until the end of 1991.

"When the Soviet Union closed up shop, that's when the last holdouts had to acknowledge that the Cold War had ended. It was easy to focus on the economy," said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. "We're still in a war. That's probably the biggest difference."

However, no one, including Bush's political advisers, doubts that a bad economy could torpedo Bush's re-election. As bad as things were in 1992, the country gained more than 2 million jobs while the elder Bush was in the White House. History shows that the economy was actually well on its way to recovery by Election Day 1992, although it didn't seem that way at the time.

Under the current President Bush, the economy has lost more than 2 million jobs, an average of more than 73,000 a month.

"If the economy tanks next year, he very well could meet the same fate (as his father)," Pitney said.

That's why Bush talks constantly about the economy now - to avoid his father's mistake of appearing indifferent to the problems of average Americans. Almost every chance he gets, Bush touts his tax-cut plan as the best way to help unemployed workers.

Whether his plan actually would help the economy is another question; the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded last month that its economic impact might be positive or negative, but either way, it would be small.

Bush's anti-tax message also reassures conservative activists who were infuriated in 1990 when the elder Bush broke his "no new taxes" pledge by including higher revenues in a massive deficit-reduction compromise with Congress.

"His father really dropped a grenade in the lap of the Republican Party by flip-flopping on his tax pledge. He made an unequivocal promise, and he went back on it. It cast doubt on just about anything he said on the hot-button issues," said Keith Appell, a Republican consultant who specializes in conservative causes. "George W. Bush has hung tough on tax cuts. He's hung tough on terrorism and defense. He's hung tough on judicial nominees."

Republican operatives also express confidence that Bush will have the campaign operation and the cash to drive home his themes. Many Republican activists date the elder Bush's political troubles to the death of campaign strategist Lee Atwater in March 1991 and the half-hearted effort by Bush's campaign chairman, James Baker.

Even Black, a key player in the 1992 campaign, acknowledges that the effort suffered from disunity. While the elder Bush relied on Atwater, this Bush relies on Karl Rove, who brings a focused discipline to the re-election effort.

"Karl's doing exactly what they need to do, literally state by state. When we have difficulties, he's going to be looking around with the patch kit, and he's going to be slapping patches on," said W. Dennis Stephens, a Republican lobbyist with White House ties.

It's not mere coincidence that Bush as president has been to Pennsylvania 19 times and Florida 14. Both states were key battlegrounds in 2000 and are likely to be hotly contested again next year. Bush visited Ohio on Thursday, his ninth visit to the Buckeye State, another political linchpin.

Bush can also expect to have a huge financial advantage. He shattered fund-raising records in 2000 by raising more than $100 million. Republicans hope to double that amount this time. And while the crowded field of Democrats slugs it out early next year, Bush will be able to husband his resources.

Black, the veteran Republican operative, lists one other advantage that this Bush will have over his father: He won't have to run against Bill Clinton.

"Clinton turned out to be the greatest Democratic campaigner in a generation," Black said. "They may come up with a good candidate, but I don't think they'll come up with another Clinton."



To: steve harris who wrote (399634)4/27/2003 8:31:36 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769667
 
The author of this piece wrote the book, "We were Soldiers once, and young."

Special ops, superior air power were key to victory

BY JOSEPH L. GALLOWAY
Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - An old saw says that no war plan survives first contact with the enemy, but the central element of the American plan to defeat Iraq - quickly punching through to Baghdad - did.

Gen. Tommy Franks, the coalition commander, fixed his sights on the Iraqi capital and never wavered. After initially proposing a much larger invasion force, he eventually relented to Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and assumed considerable risk by launching a bold attack with a relatively small force of only three divisions.

And instead of massing his forces, Franks split them, sending the Army's 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) charging through the largely empty desert west of the Euphrates River and his Marines through the more heavily populated area east of the river. He also ordered his commanders to bypass hostile cities and towns near or astride their main supply routes, which was even riskier.

But thanks to a great deal of clandestine work by U.S., British and Australian special operations forces and to an unprecedented air campaign that began slowly but quickly built to a breathtaking crescendo, Franks prevailed.

More than 5,000 special operators from the Air Force, the Army, Navy SEAL teams, the British and Australian Special Air Services and CIA paramilitary teams began secretly moving into Iraq from Turkey, Kuwait, Jordan and Saudi Arabia months before the official beginning of the war.

The teams secured bases in western Iraq, led Kurdish rebels in the north, took control of roads and dams, and penetrated Baghdad and other cities to target the Iraqi leadership.

Day and night, a digitally connected sky full of eyes - from spy satellites to Predator drones - fed target data to fighters and bombers and a real-time view of the battlefield to Franks' headquarters in Qatar and to his subordinate commanders.

Saddam Hussein's commanders were reduced to having soldiers climb trees to look for the oncoming tidal wave. The Americans moved so fast and the airstrikes shut down so much of Iraq's communications that Saddam's commanders were often two and even three days behind the curve.

In one telling incident, an Iraqi Army major general left Baghdad heading south and drove straight into a U.S. Marine roadblock. The general thought the American lines were 100 miles south of where he died.

The American war plan had to be rapidly revised, however, when a CIA "access agent," a source with secondhand knowledge of Saddam's whereabouts, reported that the Iraqi leader and his sons were in a suburban Baghdad house early on the morning of March 19. The target was blasted with Tomahawk cruise missiles and 2,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, but intelligence officials later concluded that Saddam had been in an adjacent house that wasn't hit. The bold attempt to "decapitate" the regime failed.

In the immediate aftermath, the Iraqis began to blow up oil wells in the southern fields near Rumeila. Seeing this, Franks ordered the attack to begin immediately, a day ahead of schedule.

By March 21, the "shock and awe" air campaign was in full swing, and British forces were moving on the Shiite Muslim city of Basra, with a population of more than a million. When the British were attacked by Iraqi irregulars supported by artillery and mortars, the assumption that southern Iraq would welcome invading coalition troops went out the window.

Another assumption, that the Iraqi Army would surrender in droves, also failed to materialize. The accelerated attack stymied plans to drop leaflets telling the Iraqis how to surrender: Reverse the guns on their tanks, dismount and assemble in a square some distance from their weapons. So instead of surrendering, Iraqi soldiers took off their uniforms and boots, got out of their tanks, threw away their weapons and started walking home.

Northern Iraq posed a special problem. The plan called for the 4th Infantry Division, the U.S. Army's most modern tank outfit, to open a northern front from Turkey. By March 22, however, the Bush administration abandoned its efforts to arrange passage. Instead, the 173rd Airborne Brigade was ordered to parachute into a Kurdish-held airstrip in the north on March 26.

The 3rd Infantry pressed northward toward Baghdad from Kuwait, bypassing the southern cities of Nasiriyah and Samawah.

The Marines couldn't avoid Nasiriyah. There were two crucial bridges across the Euphrates River and the Saddam Canal, which ran along the edge of the city. The Marines seized the bridges March 25 after four days of fighting, but the battle in Nasiriyah was just beginning.

U.S. supply convoys ran a gantlet of fire from Saddam Fedayeen guerrillas, Baath Party thugs and foreign Arab volunteers; suicide bombers, guerrillas manning machine guns in the backs of pickup trucks and even buses full of armed volunteers charged. Few of them survived.

An Army convoy of Patriot missile maintenance troops from Fort Bliss, Texas, made a wrong turn and drove into an ambush. In all, 36 Americans were killed in Nasiriyah and eight were taken prisoner.

The American supply lines stretched for more than 300 largely unguarded miles, and at times the flow of fuel, ammunition and food slowed to a crawl. Some Marine units got down to one meal per person per day. Some vehicles ran out of fuel. Franks ordered elements of the Army's 82nd and 101st airborne divisions to clear the route.

On March 24, a sandstorm grounded coalition warplanes and slowed or stopped the ground forces. Troops rode out two miserable days before they could resume the attack.

When the skies cleared, the air attacks resumed. The Republican Guard's T-72 tanks, dug in hull down in fixed positions, were easy pickings for A-10 Warthogs and other fighters and bombers loaded with precision-guided bombs.

The Republican Guard either never came out to fight or didn't survive long enough to fight, and the 3rd Infantry blew through the Karbala Gap, a 2-mile-wide stretch of terrain between the city of Karbala and a nearby reservoir. The Army's road to Baghdad lay open.

The Marines bypassed the heavily defended city of Kut and crossed the Tigris River on April 2, putting Baghdad in their sights, as well.

The Army's tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles fought their way into Saddam International Airport, 12 miles from downtown Baghdad, on April 3. The end was in sight.

Franks' plan didn't call for taking Baghdad immediately. But his commanders on the ground saw an opportunity. On April 7, Maj. Gen. Buford Blount, the 3rd Infantry's commander, called his boss, Lt. Gen. Scott Wallace, the V Corps commander, and told him he thought his 2nd Brigade could go downtown and stay there. He told Wallace the intersections had been secured and convoys could keep the Americans resupplied. Wallace told him to go for it.

The next day, Saddam's government and military evaporated. Marines pushed into Fardos Square and used an M-88 tank repair vehicle to help pull down a statue of Saddam.

Just over 150 American and British soldiers died, and another 500-plus suffered wounds in this information age blitzkreig. We may never know how many thousands of Iraqi soldiers and civilians perished.

And we'll soon find out if the high-tech force that was big enough to win the war is also big enough to keep the uneasy peace that's settling over Iraq.