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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9599)	4/28/2003 12:19:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Hard to say. I own AMAT but I've pulled my original investment out many times over so it might be easier to hold through ups and downs? 8:04AM Applied Materials cut to Underperform at First Albany (AMAT) 14.19: First Albany downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, saying they believe there is a strategic divergence between the co and its customers, as many of AMAT's growth initiatives seem to detrimental to its customers; firm believes that the co's mkt share in the overall front-end equipment sector has peaked and is poised to decline, and expects few of the co's strategic alternatives to grow revenues will pan out. First the negative: At the LRCX conference call, Bagley was asked about taking market share from AMAT and another company (TEL perhaps, I forget?) Bagley said he would not address who is "losing share" and the analyst should go ask the companies in question but he would say LRCX was taking share. AMAT still isn't cheap on an historical basis so you have to discount the future where AMAT maintains share and uses its leverage to grow earnings. I have not made tables or even seen them showing what would happen if the companies expensed options or even accounted for share dillution as the price goes up and more option shares become "in the money." With that said, I'd think companies selling at lower multiples of price, book and sales would have more room to absorbe these sorts of hits. Now the positive: I share your belief in the future and what advanced semiconductors mean to the future. AMAT is the clear leader here in CapX and ALL others are distant seconds. If the market goes up like crazy again as it often does, people will buy the big name leaders so I want to own some AMAT, MSFT, Intel, IBM and HPQ (my core companies). (I still don't see Dell as anything other than a company that takes a growth market and turns it into a commodity in a way they can make money... can they continue to do this for 20 years with new products? I think not so it is not the type of company I invest in.) I have added FedEx as a core company but I have far less gains there. I think I made a good choice to concentrate on "package travel" rather than "people travel" for the internet age. I also like banking stocks... someone has to finance growth, make money on mergers, etc. The trouble now is the SEC and lawyers might take them apart for not disclosing they were nothing more than salesmen pumping stocks... duh... I still might add XLNX or ALTR to my holdings if I see reasonable valuation. I wish Don was still doing his numbers as that sure saved time and was so helpful looking at stocks I don't follow. 'nough for now. Kirk

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9599)	4/28/2003 1:20:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

My first comment is where was this company's opinion last week? Had they issued their downgrade on Tues or Weds, when the stock was trading over $15.50/share, they might look wiser and one could better understand their downgrade. They waited until the stock dropped over 10% before issuing their reduction. Sounds a bit like piling on, at first glance. As to the "substance" of the downgrade, I think their view of AMAT's future focus can easily be questioned, if it's as simplistic as the news brief asserts. It's hard to nit-pick with a 2 or 3 line news item, so unless we can get the full text of their analysis I think it should be taken with a grain of salt.