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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (96648)	4/28/2003 3:07:10 PM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The more the shia clerics move to Iraq, the weaker the hardliners in Iran get, It can be argued the more clerics that move to Iraq, the more strengthened the Iranian hardliners are in Iran as they lose internal opposition. and they are already weakened by internal woes. You see? Removing their local opposition. What Iraqi liberation has done is give more liberal clerics a place to retreat when things get too rough in Iran - unless they are met in Iraq by assassination squads. It's pretty clear that's what happened to Khoi (although he didn't come from Iran). It's not yet clear there will be debate in Najaf and Baghdad or if we are going to see goon squads competing for sacred sites. The violence of the un-modern Shiite Iranian and Saddamite regimes has left a bad precedent.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (96648)	4/30/2003 12:47:51 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The more the shia clerics move to Iraq, the weaker the hardliners in Iran get, and they are already weakened by internal woes. I think the Iranian Shiite clerics can see the handwriting on the wall as to their future in Iran, just like the rest of us. But Iraq presents an opportunity for them to marshall the substantial Shiite community there and preserve some measure of influence in the Shiite Holy Land... Because let's not forget, Karbala to the average Shiite is like Mecca to the Sunnis. And just as militant Wahhabism has led to resentment at US presence in Saudi Arabia (hence our recent pull out), militant Shia clerics see the potential for establishing the same situation in Iraq. Thus, is there a credible threat of Iranian Shia agents of influence, or actual Shiite operatives are working to create instability in Iraq?? Absolutely. But it's not for the purpose of advancing Iranian interests over those of Iraq, but to seize juridictional control over the holiest sites of Shiism, from which they can re-establish control over Shiites throughout the region. Hawk