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To: Eric L who wrote (2981)5/28/2003 7:38:17 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
Unofficial Technology Scorecard for the Last 12 Months

These figures are unofficial estimates from EMC for subscriber growth by technology from April 2002 to April 2003. In that 12 month period:

• 77.6% of new sub net adds in 2002 were GSM

• 16.4% of new sub net adds in 2002 were CDMA

• 04.6% of new sub net adds in 2002 were TDMA

• 01.4% of new sub net adds in 2002 were PDC

• A Key Ratio: GSM subs to CDMA subs = 5.4:1

• In the last 12 months for every CDMA sub added 4.7 GSM subs were added.

• In the last 34 months GSM wireless market share has increased 24.4% (13.8 percentage points).

• In the last 34 months CDMA market share has increased 10.1% (1.2 percentage points).

However:

• At 29.3% YOY Growth CDMA is growing faster than GSM (23.9%) in 2002.

• Overall Subscriber Growth has slowed and continues to slow both in actual and percentage terms, but CDMA actual growth is increasing although rate of growth has declined. 

Wireless Subscribers (millions) by Technology at End of April 2003
                                                                   ·
                Subs           Market Share
                            % All      % Digital

GSM             847.3       70.4%         71.9%
CDMA            157.9       13.1%         13.4%
TDMA            110.4        9.2%          9.4%
PDC              61.7        5.1%          5.2%
W-CDMA            0.384       .3%           .3%
------------------------------------------------
Total Digital  1177.7       97.3%        100.0%
Total Analogue   25.1        2.0%          N/A
Total Wireless 1202.8      100.1%          N/A
                                                                   ·
12 Month Subscriber Growth Rates
                                                 Net       YOY
                              Apr 01    Apr 02    Adds     Growth
                                                                   ·
Total GSM   Subscribers       684.0m    847.3m   163.3m    23.9%
Total CDMA  Subscribers       123.4m    157.9m    34.5m    29.3%
Total TDMA  Subscribers       100.7m    110.4m     9.7m     9.6%
Total PDC   Subscribers        58.7m     61.7m     3.0m     5.1%
Total WCDMA Subscribers        0.10m      0.384m   0.284m 284.0%
Total Anal  Subscribers        38.1m     25.1m   (13.0m)  (34.1%)
Total Wireless Subscribers   1005.3m   1202.8m   197.5m    18.8%
                                         swing = 210.5m (+analog) 
                                                                   ·
30 Month Relative Market Share of CDMA & GSM
                                                                   ·
              QCDMA Market Share      GSM Market Share
                                                                   ·
            % of all  % of digital  % of all  % of digital
                                                                   ·
04 2003 End   13.1%     13.4%         70.4%     71.9%      
Q4 2002 End   12.9%     13.3%         69.7%     71.6%
Q2 2002 End   12.3%     12.7%         68.6%     71.0%
Q4 2001 End   11.7%     12.3%         65.7%     69.0%
Q2 2001 End   11.6%     12.4%         64.8%     69.4%
Q4 2000 End   11.2%     12.5%         63.3%     69.7%
Q2 2000 End   11.9%     13.9%         56.6%     66.1%

The Official Technology Scorecard for 2002 is here

Message 18891723

###

- Eric -



To: Eric L who wrote (2981)4/1/2004 2:50:11 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
delete



To: Eric L who wrote (2981)4/1/2004 4:43:26 PM
From: Eric L  Respond to of 9255
 
Mobile Wireless Technology Scorecard ...

... using the Subscriber Metric.

It's that time of year again ...

... latest numbers are in from EMC through February, and CDG through December 2003.

A. Unofficial: EMC's Subscriber Estimates for February 2004 End ¹
                                                                     ·
                    Subs           Market Share
                                % All      % Digital
                                                                     ·
GSM              1,024.3m        71.6%        72.6%
CDMA               194.4m        13.6%        13.8%
TDMA               110.2m         7.7%         7.8%
PDC                 62.2m         4.3%         4.3%
iDEN ²              17.1m         1.2%         1.2%
W-CDMA               3.4m         0.24%         .3%
---------------------------------------------------
Total Digital    1,411.6         98.7%       100.0%
Total Analogue      18.3          1.3%         N/A
Total Wireless   1,429.9        100.0%         N/A
                                                                     ·
Total GSM/3GSM   1,027.7m        71.9%        72.8%
Total 'CDMA' ³     197.8m        13.9%        14.0%
Other              190.5m        13.3%         N/A
                                                                     ·
¹ Source: CDG for CDMA, EMC for all other technologies
² iDEN included above, but not in a numbers that follow.
³  'CDMA' = CDMA + WCDMA
                                                                     ·
B. Wireless Subscribers (millions) by Technology at End of 2003 ¹,²
                                                                     ·
                    Subs          Market  Share
                                % All     % Digital
                                                                     ·
GSM                988.1m       72.1%        73.2%
cdmaOne/CDMA2000   188.6m       13.7%        14.0%
TDMA               109.0m        8.0%         8.1%
PDC                 62.0m        4.5%         4.6%
W-CDMA               2.6m         .2%          .2%
--------------------------------------------------
Total Digital     1350.3m       98.5%       100.0%
Total Analogue      20.0m        1.5%         N/A
Total Wireless    1370.3m      100.0%         N/A

Total 'CDMA' ³     191.2m       14.0%        14.2%        
Total GSM/3GSM     990.7m       72.3%        73.4%
Other              191.0m       13.9%         N/A
                                                                     ·
¹ Source: CDG for CDMA, EMC for all other technologies
² Does not include ~16 million 2003 YE iDEN subscribers
³ 'CDMA' = CDMA + WCDMA
                                                                     ·
C. 12 Month Subscriber Growth Rates
                                                    Net        YOY
                               Dec 02    Dec 03     Adds      Growth
                                                                     ·
Total GSM  Subscribers         787.5m    988.1m    200.6m     25.5%
Total CDMA Subscribers         146.7m    188.6m     41.9m     28.6%
Total TDMA Subscribers         109.2m    109.0m      0.0m      0.0%
Total PDC  Subscribers          60.1m     62.0m      1.9m      3.2%
Total W-CDMA  Subscribers        0.15m     2.6m      2.5m  1,633.0%
Total Analog Subscribers        30.0m     20.0m    (10.0m)   (16.0%)
Total Wireless Subscribers   1,133.7m  1,370.3m     236.6m    20.9%
                                          swing  =  246.6m (+ analog)
                                                                     ·
D. Relative Market Share Growth by Key Technology Platform ¹,²
                                                                     ·
CDMA Market Share      GSM Market Share
                                                                     ·
            % of all  % of digital  % of all  % of digital
                                                                     ·
04 2003 End   13.7%     14.0%         72.1%     73.2%         
02 2003 End   13.1%     13.4%         70.4%     71.9%
Q4 2002 End   12.9%     13.3%         69.7%     71.6%
Q2 2002 End   12.3%     12.7%         68.6%     71.0%
Q4 2001 End   11.7%     12.3%         65.7%     69.0%
Q2 2001 End   11.6%     12.4%         64.8%     69.4%
Q4 2000 End   11.2%     12.5%         63.3%     69.7%
Q2 2000 End   11.9%     13.9%         56.6%     66.1%
                                                                     ·
¹ CDG and EMC estimates. CDG does not include 'WCDMA' in their report
² 'WCDMA' not included as it is <1% of total subscribers.

• In the 3½ years ending December 2003 GSM wireless subscriber market share has increased 27.4% (15.5 percentage points).

• in the 3½ years ending December 2003 CDMA wireless subscriber market share has increased 17.8% (1.8 percentage points).

[Note: CDMA growth stalled in 2000 relative to GSM and TDMA, but resumed in 2001]

• In the 3 years ending December 2003 GSM wireless subscriber market share has increased 13.9% (8.8 percentage points).

• in the 3 years ending December 2003 CDMA wireless subscriber market share has increased 22.3% (2.5 percentage points), outpacing GSM's growth rate.

E. Global Comparison of GSM to CDMA (EMC & CDG)
                                                                     ·
                      GSM/3GSM               cdmaOne/CDMA2000
               =========================   ======================
               GSM   GPRS   EDGE   WCDMA   CDMA   1xRTT   1xEV-DO   
                                                                     ·
Networks       549    172    14      11     207 ¹    77      9
Countries      183                           43 ¹
Subscribers    987m    ?      ?     ~4m     189m     75m    ~5m
                                                                     ·
¹ Includes WLL and planned networks

• 13 1xRTT and 4 1xEV-DO networks are scheduled to be deployed in the next year.
• 147 GSM or 3GSM networks are planned to go on air in next 12 to 18 months.
• GSM networks will cover 203 countries within 18 months
• 57 additional GPRS networks and 62 additional EDGE networks are planned.

F. GSM Subscriber Forecast by EMC (10 MAR 04) ¹
                                                                     ·
Year ending      Dec 04    Dec 05   Dec 06   Dec 07   Dec 08
                                                                     ·
GSM Subscribers  1,137.0m  1297.2m  1425.4m  1512.3m  1557.1m
Net Adds           148.9m   160.2m   128.2m    86.9m    44.8m
                                                                     ·
¹ This forecast updates the December forecast below for GSM only
                                                                     ·
GSM Subscriber Forecast by Technology for YE 2008 by EMC (December 04)
                                                                     ·
GSM       CDMA    WCDMA   TDMA    PDC   iDEN   TBD    Total  

1.418B    286m    126m    107m     67m   20m    49m     2.073 Billion
 68.4%    13.8%   6.1%    5.2%    3.2%  1.0%    2.3%     100%
                                                                     ·
Total 'CDMA' ¹      461m       22.2%       
Total GSM/3GSM ²     1593m       72.3%        73.4%
                                                                     · 
¹ 'CDMA' = CDMA + WCDMA + EMC's 'TBD' (¿¿¿ UTRA TDD HCR & LCR ???)
² GSM/3GSM  =  GSM + WCDMA + EMC's 'TBD' (¿¿¿ UTRA TDD HCR & LCR ???)

*** 2003 Wireless Summary Conclusions ***

• In 2003 total wireless subscribers, GSM subscribers, and CDMA subscribers , all grew in actual terms reversing last years trend of declining actual growth, but the growth rate for CDMA declined marginally. Growth rate for CDMA, however, exceeded GSM. 

                       Adds  YE   02 YOY    Adds  YE   03 YOY
                        Dec 02    Growth     Dec 03    Growth      
                                                                     ·
Total GSM  Net Adds     159.8m     25.5%     200.6m    25.5%    
Total CDMA Net Adds      35.4m     31.8%      41.9m    28.6%
Total Wireless Adds     198.0m     18.8%     236.6m    20.9%

• 80.7% of subscriber net adds in 2003 were GSM

• 17.8 of subscriber net adds in 2003 were CDMA

• 1.0% of subscriber net adds in 2003 were PDC

• In 2003 Analog continued its decline and TDMA showed no growth.

• In 2003 J-UMTS (FOMA) and 3GSM UMTS WCDMA started to gain traction in 2003.

• Volume ramps of FOMA) and 3GSM UMTS WCDMA lie ahead.

• A Key Ratio: GSM subs to CDMA subs = 5.2:1 (now declining) was 5.4:1 in 2002.

Disclaimer: Raw numbers are EMC's for GSMA and CDG's. Calculations are mine. It is possible that I have made transposition errors or typo's and I may have miscalculated somewhere along the way or failed to update an older calculation. Best to note that the pros make these errors as well. <g>

In addition to EMC for GSMA, and CDG source material, some data is compiled from GSA, and 3GAmericas.

I have refrained from any editorial comment in this post, consequently you see no FWIW, IMOs or JMHOs here. Others are free to comment or opine particularly on the value or validity of EMC's forecasts, which I should advise is just one research house's attempt at crystal ball gazing.

###

- Eric -


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