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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (329)	4/29/2003 11:28:36 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

SARS Deaths by gender and age in Toronto at 26 April. Of 138 cases, 20 deaths = 14%. Even if probable cases of 131 are included, that makes 7% mortality with 42 probables and 42 suspects still hospitalized. Assuming 7 of them die, that would make 27 deaths from 138 probable cases and 131 suspect cases. Including all the probable and suspect cases, that's 10%. If just the probable cases are included, that's 20%. For those over 60 years old, it's lethal! ogov.newswire.ca Gender Age Date of Death ------ --- ------------- Female 78 Mar. 5 Male 43 Mar. 13 Male 76 Mar. 21 Male 77 Mar. 29 Female 78 Mar. 31 Male 74 Apr. 1 Male 82 Apr. 1 (reported approximately Apr. 5) Female 57 Apr. 2 Male 62 Apr. 5 Female 75 Apr. 6 Female 80 April 12 Female 86 April 12 Female 73 April 12 Female 99 April 17 Male 63 April 22 Female 78 April 23 Male 44 April 24 Female 69 April 25 Female 64 April 25 Male 77 April 26 So much for my theory. Only 9 males, average age = 66. 11 females, average age = 76. Oh, that puts my theory back in business. Women have to be really old to die. Blokes die a decade younger. Also, there are maybe twice as many women alive after age 75 as males [in Toronto], so many more old women than men are around to be infected. Adjusted for the number of old women in the population, I'd say, as usual, males do the dying younger [due to their own health decisions such as smoking and eating bad food]. The two young males at 43 and 44 skew the numbers lower for the males [only a sample of 9, so disproportionately perhaps]. One old lady at 99 is less of a skew of a sample of 11. The elderly population will be dramatically reduced if this disease spreads. That will halve the need for the medical industry because old people need much of the medical attention in a community. It will also halve the old age pension budgets needed by governments. It will cut the population by 7%, reducing housing demand. It will hand on estates to younger people who will spend the money on stuff they need [or want]. That'll give an economic turbo boost. Chinese don't vote, but in the west, it would shift voting patterns to younger people's interests. Maybe China will succeed in stopping the disease and we'll be back to 'normal'. Old smokers, stop now if you want to live! Tune up your lungs. Young ones, stop smoking, avoid the ventilator and wear the "I Survived Sars" tee shirt with pride. Thinking out loud, Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (329)	4/29/2003 11:39:30 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

Maurice, race does play a part here. Generally speaking, Asians (Mongols - Estern and Southeastern Asians) are very vulnerable for lung disease. A lot of them have healed calcium spot on their lungs (means had been infected by pneumonia without knowledge). While Anglo-Saxons are very vulnerable for flu. In China few people actually dead of flu every year even though they named all those flu with Chinese cities names<g> Although smoking might be a factor too. Much higher % of Chinese smokes. Although some heavy smokers (Like Deng Xiaoping) could live a very long life<g>. It all depends on individual personalities. >>Traditional remedies are a load of rubbish without scientific foundation << hehe, for you only<g>. I cannot survive without Chinese herbal medicines, not to mention living healthyly. And one reason for the difference bet. Guangdong SARS death rate and HK SARS death rate is that Guangdong uses extensive herbal remedies to enhance patients immune system, while majority of HK doctors are only trained by Western medicine. As for that you do not trust the number from mainland, I can only say it is a shame. I think the current daily reported number is pretty accurate. And BTW, the recovery rate in Guangdong is already 85%. I agree mortality will be >4% eventually in some places, but will be lower than 10%. I would say maybe 7% or so is a safe bet. But in Guangdong itself, the death rate will not be much higher than 4%. >>Have you seen any data on gender, smoking, asthmatics etc?<< Nope, have not seen those data. But I do remember majority of those elders in HK had chronical conditions. And 19 out 21 Canadians died of SARS has serious chronical conditions.