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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (357)	5/1/2003 6:11:27 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 1070

Ooops, useless figuring and graphing myself [but I'm unpaid and was hurrying off to golf, so I foregive myself]. Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx [120 actual] ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [my estimate, total = 160 - I won't use e for estimate as it distorts the graph due to font spacing] who.int With 5,600 cumulative cases [of varying definitions] and a death rate of maybe 10%, [on previous cases though maybe lower since China has a high recovery rate of suspected sars], that's about 600 or another 230 to die of existing cases. Then there will be more cases over the next couple of weeks. Of the 230 due to die, I wild guess that about 160 will die over the next week [the crisis seems to be about 11 days into the disease by which time the immune system starts to make gains or the person starts losing the fight].

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (357)	5/2/2003 6:45:19 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1070

who.int x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [actual 372] ..2 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [417] It now feels very weird to click along, 10 humans at a time, who have been killed by Sars. I almost lose count. Almost 50 people in a couple of days. I wonder when people will stop making silly comparisons with those suffering malaria, and other endemic diseases which aren't gaining ground, and trivializing Sars because there are so few dead. It's more than a few now. The disease is far from under control. Mqurice