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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (8228)	5/1/2003 5:38:22 AM
From: dalroi	Respond to of 52153

yep Unfortunately, this model (visible from CEPH and others) depend too much on LUCK. Did NBIX yet completed successful PII trial from its own pipeline? yes think this is indeed like the survivor bias nicolas Taleb wrote about in his book "the hidden role of chance in life and stockmarket" (or something like that) take a 1000 co with this model and we remember only the 2-3 which succeed however once the money flows in there is the mushroom effect and they'll be able to purchase good products in the next downdraft cheers Stefaan btw its a spooky book

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (8228)	5/1/2003 7:55:28 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

<<Unfortunately, this model (visible from CEPH and others) depend too much on LUCK. Did NBIX yet completed successful PII trial from its own pipeline?>> Does it matter? Is it luck that they've now gone out and taken advantage of an ftc forced divestiture? Now with nbix and others inlicensing success, almost all bio's claim to be looking for product. Yet nbix takes another phase II drug for nothing. Sure there's luck involved. But what I'm also referencing is taking their time, doing thorough work, changing the product profile before approval to define the modified release product. Also not going nuts during the 99-00 heyday and raising $1B dollars and multiplying the r&d and burn. This is still a modest company, with modest burn rates and a reasonable 31M shares outstanding. They appear to intend to stick to their formula despite a potential future windfall to leverage the eps and stock. Now contrast that with sepracor and millennium (both trying to reverse the damage). If TB and DS of sepr had half the brains and foresight of Lyons they'd be sitting on a $100 stock instead of $19 imo.

To: Miljenko Zuanic who wrote (8228)	5/1/2003 8:33:26 AM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

>> Unfortunately, this model (visible from CEPH and others) depend too much on LUCK.>> With an 80 % attrition rate during clinical development everyone will need a good portion of luck - regardless of development model. I don't think that CEPH is a good comparison. They acquired already approved drugs and added marketing and sales expertise. >>Did NBIX yet completed successful PII trial from its own pipeline?>> I have seen this argument from time to time and have never understood it. I think it matters much more what comes out of a pipeline than how things get in there. Erik PS and O-T. Your next generation soccer team is starting to look very good. They beat ours by 2-1 yesterday in a (relatively) friendly.