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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Icebrg who wrote (8232)	5/1/2003 8:44:14 AM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Ice, Provigil was EU approved but unapproved and untested in the US when ceph inlicensed. Success with provigil gave ceph the equity to take on actiq and gabitril. CELG is another good example. Many more too. No small wonder that half of biotech is seeking to inlicense. <<With an 80 % attrition rate during clinical development everyone will need a good portion of luck - regardless of development model.>> Couldn't agree more.

To: Icebrg who wrote (8232)	5/1/2003 12:28:53 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

>>Did NBIX yet completed successful PII trial from its own pipeline?>> I have seen this argument from time to time and have never understood it. I think it matters much more what comes out of a pipeline than how things get in there. Well if you are FRX you can build a very successful business by licensing-in your pipeline. But I suspect this is going to be harder to do going forward, particularly for smaller companies without a big sales force. But your overall point is well taken - look at MOGN, for an example of this strategy in small company context. It sure looks like near-term value will be coming from inlicensed palo rather than internally-developed MGI-114. Peter