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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44468)	5/2/2003 9:30:44 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 52237

I was talking about measurable capitulation that's been pretty consistent for 40-70 years, like Investors Intelligence bulls hitting 55% (the high for this bear was 43%, probably about the lowest ever at a major bottom), or 5 or more 90% downside days (we might have had two on this last leg down, although one or both could be disputed). On the II numbers, consider that we got 55% bears in 1990 and 1994, much shorter lived and shallower declines. Or the 75% Wall Street equity allocation vs. 45% at the 1998 low. Some people may have gotten killed in this, particularly if they held onto tech all the way down, but it seems to me that most have been waiting for the next bull, instead of fearing the worst. We need that fearing the worst phase before we can get a cyclical bull, I think.