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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32995)	5/4/2003 1:50:49 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, I like these pdfs since you can save the document and forget the link. Taxability see page 6. acclaimtrust.com RLI page 19 ultimatrust.com Understated diversification I also own peat moss... finance.yahoo.com and manufacturing finance.yahoo.com Specifically to your post: There are a couple of reputable oil/gas trusts PMT is new and has no track record. I got in on the ground floor and it hasn't yet 'earned' respectability although I admittedly own a goodly chunk. Gas price has been increasing and may increase more Hopefully. Remember NG is still largely a continental issue until LNG becomes viable (aside from lack of infrastructure there are terrorism fears associated with it) Hence part of the reason for my interest in Vermillion. even though it may weaken between now and summer Yes during spring and fall shoulder seasons demand will typically wane and more production goes to building storage. So, when you are thinking 'wobble' you are thinking in terms of minus 5% or minus 15%? yes that is the range but I will look for opportunities at the higher end of the discounts and better, and some will likely present themselves. Look at the big down stick on AVN in March. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Some poor slob hit with a margin call ? I dunno but someone got lucky !! I tend to look at it in terms of how many months of dividends equivalence. what % are you bought already? I was at about 35% of my current holdings last December. I rolled out of my very overweight gold positions into a very overweight trust position mainly energy and more weighted to NG through January and have continued to accumulate until the end of April. In a nutshell my trusts are also all green and ACB's in some cases AVN, PWI, and PMT are far far lower than today's prices. I decided on this tack back towards the end of the last NG bubble when I decided to start building what I like to call my 'relaxing' portfolio with a good percentage of my PF (target 75%) geared towards high, relatively stable income. Giving back much gold profit last summer and regaining it and more by year end has reinforced this mentality :o) That still leaves lots of room for things like RRI, CNP and last week's best buy VTSS :o) :o) Also some of this overweight energy position may very well find its way back into Astec currency sooner than later... More energy trusts is now geared to 'special situations' and diversification... Like PMT (ex of POU), this E&P PEY(TSE) announced their intention to go trust recently. See the price increase ? Another angle to keep on the radar. I was cash strapped and bought none :o( but the story is familiar.. PMT was a bonanza and those that recently bought Peyto in the upper 12's after it's revelation are I'm sure quite pleased today.. finance.yahoo.com Again remember that I'm looking to have income generated from a large part of my portfolio and I 'have a day job' so that all colours my decisions. regards Kastel

To: TobagoJack who wrote (32995)	5/5/2003 1:06:48 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay - Royualty Trusts - a) Yes, some reputable firms. But behavoir can change as people change. Recently, many trusts have moved some functions around to get more fee income. Also, incentives are not perfectly aligned- some mangements get paid more for just doing deals. Also two other possiblities - 1) Company does something dumb 2) Company does something good, but doesn't fit your time frame- may have a big pay in 3 years, and you want to get out 9 months from now as prices peak. Solution to much of the above to own multiple names - say more than 5. Then, a single point failure won't mess up the whole strategy. c) & d) I'm not sure the gas price is going to weaken - I was hoping it would a little, so I can buy more. Portfolio postions - I have had over 40% of my portfolio, and a portfolio for which I have a fiduciary responsiblity, in Royalty trusts. As the value of the trusts went up, that percentage started edging up above 50%, and I sold some, and some of the proceeds went into utilities stocks, (RRI,CNP,CPN, WMB, DUK etc.) Some of the sales of the trusts were used to cover expenses, and in one case for a small follow-on investemnt in a gas well in Texas. Currently, the conservative fiduciary portfolio has about 20% in trusts, and my personal protfolio has about 10%. Part of this percentage reduction was due to large gains on the utility stocks, making the portfolio slightly larger. I decided to move more into utililty stocks, which I think will continue to move up quickly for a few more weeks, then to buy trusts on weakness. I am very comfortable with about 35% of my portfolio in trusts, but I try not to let any one stock get above 5%. I consider that level to be reasonable while natural gas prices are in a long term upward trend. I may go as high as 50% of my portfolio in trusts, but I would consider that a speculation and would only do it for my own account. For wobbles, look back at SJT over past 6 months. Nice smooth ramp, ramp became steeper with March gas panic, spike and then came down. PWI had some more drops. There is a lot of smoothness and consistency to the trends -at least most of the time.