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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (758)	5/6/2003 12:05:55 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4912

please be clear about the path that is not going to a depression/severe recession. it's your topic.

To: The Ox who wrote (758)	5/6/2003 12:20:42 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 4912

you haven't been on general direction threads much lately it would appear. its a whole other conversation >g> anyway, take stab. show me what you've got to be bullish about. as i told you, my investment life would be a whole lot easier if you take me away from the dark side. they are devils.

To: The Ox who wrote (758)	5/6/2003 12:22:26 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4912

Michael, I think that to start, we'd need to define fairly precisely (for the purposes of debate) what set of conditions we consider to be a depression and what worsened set of conditions we would consider to be a great depression. My viewpoint is that a depression is defined by: -o- massive unemployment -o- lack of opportunities for gainful employment -o- lack of investment opportunities -o- lack of purchasing power by the masses -o- bankruptcies, both individual and corporate -o- some degree of deflation, particularly for commodities -o- what wealth remains is concentrated within a small sphere of individuals/entities -o- governments/charities/churches become the chief suppliers of day to day sustenance for many people (think soup lines, welfare, unemployment benefits, charity, etc.) -o- GDP decreases I'm sure that other posters here (including you) could think of other factors as well. Once we can agree on a definition of depression, then we can speculate on possible causes ranging from geopolitics to economics to the ever popular random-meteorite-in-China theory... KJC

To: The Ox who wrote (758)	5/6/2003 12:24:26 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 4912

<Please be clear and define the path which will lead the USA and the world down the path to a great depression.> Well, let's see we've got a bunch more jobs that are essentially "dead jobs paying"... Airlines and auto's to start. Then we've got the largest users of tech equipment just starting to lay off [finance] at the end of the biggest bull market which accompanied the largest hiring spree in history... more layoffs, more tech weakness. For instance check out the % of the S&P which is finance now. Finance IS the economy... and layoffs are just starting. Then you've got the biggest housing and refinance [liquidity injection] boom in history winding down.... plenty of layoffs coming there, along with massive credit drawdown finished up. Uhmmmm, let's see... is there more? Oh, yea... what % of the economy vs 20 years ago 'feeds' off of those others... the 'service' economy, living off the rest? The service economy living off imports and their advertising, selling, distribution??? So what... oooops: quotes.ino.com I smell slowdown there... hmmmm. So what's the bull case? dAK