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Strategies & Market Trends : Heinz Blasnik- Views You Can Use -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GraceZ who wrote (851)5/7/2003 3:54:17 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4904
 
that's ridiculous. being bearish is not by any measure the majority view. speaking for myself, being bearish starting in oct 1999 preserved my capital and pointed my research into places i never would have traveled, and quite profitably.

end of the world? not yet. but coping better than most along the way.

seriously grace, make a case. the topic just isn't going anywhere otherwise. okay?



To: GraceZ who wrote (851)5/7/2003 3:58:22 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4904
 
It would be far easier if I just did what you guys did here, take the popular view

this may come as a shock, but your views seem to be very much the popular ones. perhaps if you did watch CNBC you would see that all the fund managers they have on there every day urging people to buy stocks have the same rosy outlook you do. they also rely on easily accessible mainstream statistics like "6% unemployment", and they also recite positive anecdotes about their inlaws who make more money as unemployed than they did in the workforce.

do you really think the market would be trading at more than 30 times earnings and 4 times sales and one times GDP--all twice the historical averages--if the bearish views expressed on this thread were widely held?

You all worry about stuff that is easily debunked

is it just out of concern for our fragile male egos that you've never debunked any of it?

and never talk about the stuff that is the most dangerous


OK, sounds like an interesting subject, so let's talk: what is most dangerous? my answer to that question is, nobody knows because LIFE IS FULL OF SURPRISES. maybe SARS is the most dangerous thing and it was just a twinkle in some Peking duck's eye six months ago. maybe Ice-9 is what's most dangerous. who knows?

probably the most dangerous thing is something you'll never expect. true story: i get paranoid on airplanes, especially prop planes. had to fly on one recently. imagined all these disasters but made it home safely. later on, driving a ho-hum road to see Cirque du Soleil, this big truck coming from the other way hits a pothole and tips over on its left-side wheels, practically at a 45-degree angle bearing straight on me. it was 20 feet from my face and it could've taken my head off. the thing righted itself, luckily, but that could've been that. here i was worrying about the airplanes when along comes a truck hitting a pothole and it could've been my doom.

maybe it was! maybe now i'm just living in a computer-generated after-life like in Vanilla Sky. but the market's still overpriced.

the point is, the most dangerous thing is unknowable.

So what's your contingency plan for when the end of the world as we know it fails to materialize one more time?

i have no contingency plan. i don't need one. i retired in my early 30s in 2000 thanks to the tech bubble. why do you think i have time to engage in these silly arguments between golf rounds? :)



To: GraceZ who wrote (851)5/7/2003 10:35:58 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 4904
 
Hello Grace, <<So what's your contingency plan for when the end of the world as we know it fails to materialize one more time?>>

We must be patient. The road to TeoTwawKi is a long and twisty path, the travel is harsh, and the journey will be full of exquisite anguish and much more pain.
I believe a world where:

(a) The officialdom is deliberately lowering the risk-free rate of return to zero,

(b) The powers that be wants to forestall the masses from exchanging less of their cash for more goods,

(c) The long-tail pension obligations are being legislatively broken,

(d) The now very connected global system of economy, trade and finance is ruled by one senility-stricken central banker, surrounded by many ‘yes’ men,

(e) The central banker rants on in engineering terms about productivity of widgets made elsewhere, and refuses to talk, in financial language, the value of money, and in human logic, the power of faith, here

… is a world gone awry, sliding towards the point of no return, inexorably on its way to TeoTwawKi.

What is the contingency plan should TeoTwawKi fail to materialize?

I think no such plan is needed, because those who do own research, evaluation, and walk the lone path of contrary thinking is, has been and will continue to be making money, in dribs and drabs, ever flexible, always alert.

I am not planning for booms, because a boom is simply not in the 52 cards. I am simply preparing for bust, getting in tune with the Force, sensing the energy, keeping aware of the dangers, and on the lookout for opportunities. Because, as promised by Professor Benankaput, a boom, should one materialize, will be inflation-led and debt-financed, meaning accompanied by massive devaluation of every bit of paper most equity-investing folks hold ... so, the big kaboom is promised.

I figure: hoard gold, value Canada, buy natural gas;0)

The natural trades, obvious exchanges, apparent wagers and sure bets, require no intellectualizing.

Chugs, Jay

P.S. Here is a bit of imagination and some words, of caution:

What is the financing requirement to deal with economic stagnation, financial collapse, debt implosion, monetary inflation, currency devaluation, new-age depression, exploding home values, sealed-off homeland, nuke-exporting N.Korea, going-off-on-its-own Japan (with its wallet), nuke-importing Iran, a few hundred million unhappy Moslems, and a few dozen million of babyboomers not able to retire the Florida dream?


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