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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9752)	5/10/2003 3:16:06 PM
From: Ira Player	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Cary, First, I agree that the industry will continue it's pursuit and it will be cost effective to do so at least until the 70 nm node. However... Message 18094157 Additionally, there is a point beyond which it will not be 'risk' effective to proceed. Each generation of shrink brings with it a significant increase in the cost of the Fab to build the devices. These multi-billion dollar facilities provide a concentration of resources that is difficult to protect, both from natural and man made events. Just as air travel hit a cost effectiveness wall because of the speed of sound, semiconductor feature sizes will hit a wall because of the cost of the Fabs, the risk they represent and the limited use for which these advanced devices are required. Don't be fooled by the limited sample you are reviewing when you discuss the "Personal Node" era. Do you want these things? Do I? Yes on both counts I would guess. Would our friends and close acquaintances? Again, probably yes. But we are immersed in the technical world and enamored of it. Most of the people I talk to that are slightly removed from the front lines of technology can do all they want with technology we think of as antiques. They do the job that is required. It will take longer than is hoped for the full utilization of what we have, much less have the applications for what is next. The first video game was actually a Lunar Lander. It was a failure, sitting unused. It was too intimidating at the time. The first successful Video Game was Pong. A simple knob controlling a virtual paddle to hit a virtual ball and 'break' bricks. It was not intimidating and got people used to the idea of a "Video game". Comfort with complexity came later and Lunar Lander was a success the second time around. The advanced functions of which you speak will take a long time to trickle into the masses. And the devices that make them possible will not be required in quantity until it does. The applications and the acceptance of them must catch up with the capabilities of the hardware. Just my opinion... Ira