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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44690)	5/11/2003 11:08:42 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

German, Italian Economies Stagnated in 1st Qtr, Economists Say By John Fraher Frankfurt, May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The German and Italian economies skirted contraction in the first quarter as concern about the war in Iraq damped consumer and corporate spending, economists said before reports scheduled for release this week. The German economy, Europe's largest, expanded 0.2 percent in the three months to March compared with the previous quarter, when growth stagnated, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Italy's economy probably stalled, a separate survey showed. Germany and Italy make up almost half of the 12-nation euro region's economy. Europe's economy is struggling as the euro's appreciation to a four-year high against the dollar damps sales at companies such as Volkswagen AG and Benetton Group SpA. German industrial output fell in March for the first time this year and Italian consumer optimism dropped close to its lowest since 1996. ``Business conditions in Europe are gloomy and getting tougher,'' said Horst Kuschetzki, chief executive officer of Edscha AG, a German maker of car-door hinges whose customers include DaimlerChrysler AG and Fiat SpA. German gross domestic figures will be released by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday at 8 a.m. Frankfurt time. Italian GDP data will be published two hours later by the national statistics office. Italy's economy expanded 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The euro region's $8 trillion economy probably expanded 0.1 percent compared with the previous three-month period, according to the median forecast of 18 economists. Eurostat is scheduled to publish the figures at noon on Thursday. `Long-Lasting Weakness' The Bundesbank in March said it sees the risk of ``long- lasting weakness'' in the economy and urged Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government to revamp tax and labor laws. Schroeder's proposals to cut jobless benefits and ease firing rules are opposed by the country's trade unions. Germany's last year expanded at the slowest pace in almost a decade. Unemployment in April rose to the highest in more than five years, sapping government tax income and boosting its welfare payments. Business confidence fell to the lowest since the last recession in 2001. ``We're close to stagnation,'' said Dirk Chlench, an economist at Hypothekenbank Essen. ``It's a surprise that the economy probably managed to grow at all in the first quarter. The second quarter will be worse -- Germany is the laggard not just of Europe but of the world's largest economies.'' No Recovery Italy's economy, which also barely grew last year, is showing few signs of improvement. Executives were more pessimistic in April than they had been in more than a year and industrial output fell in the first two months of the year. The Italian government slashed its 2003 growth forecast by more than half to 1.1 percent in April. Slowing growth and tepid consumer demand has weighed on corporate profit, prompting companies such as Fiat SpA and Pirelli SpA to cut jobs. Italy's quarterly jobless rate rose in January to 9 percent, the first increase in five years. ``The economy isn't recovering,'' said Alessandro Profumo, chief executive officer of UniCredito Italiano SpA, Italy's second- largest bank. The German and Italian economies may get a boost from the European Central Bank in coming months. Interest rate futures trading indicates that investors expect the ECB to lower its benchmark lending rate, which currently stands at 2.5 percent, in the next four months. The yield on the three-month Euribor contract maturing in September was 2.21 percent, compared with a money market rate of 2.47 percent, at 5:54 p.m. on Friday in Frankfurt. A further cut would take borrowing costs to the lowest for any country in the 12- state euro region since at least 1948. ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing on Thursday said he expects ``substantially higher'' growth rates next year, though he's also concerned about ``downside risks to growth.'' Last Updated: May 11, 2003 19:07 EDT

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (44690)	5/12/2003 11:27:07 AM
From: zonder	Respond to of 52237

Haim - I really enjoy your posts. You are one of the few constant (and consistent) sources of entertainment on SI :-) The reason that the USD is falling is that the US is not interested to support the USD and a lower USD will help revive the US economy. Are you still talking about USD? What, after these posts, one would think you would realize you don't know what is going on and perhaps stop commenting on currency movements: Here's where you claimed the depreciation of the USD against EUR was because of some Shiite demonstration in Iraq :-) Message 18867861 And below is my personal favourite, from when the EUR/USD was about 1.06 : IMHO the fast slide of the USD is intentional, done by hostile entities to damage the US credibility and economy Message 18458465 Brilliant! :-)