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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83838)	5/12/2003 9:43:29 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99985

Historical Data: The 3 indicator average computation is done on paper copy graphs, but I do have raw data on each of the 3 components in spreadsheet format. If you want that, it would need to be attached to an email. I do have a chart on my web site, but it hasnt been updated in quite a while. It's at nav.to/biedzen. BTW, it's good to know my posts and underlying research are appreciated. While it would be great if this thread had more posters, the quality at least, including yourself, is quite good. Re the surveys, I had the opportunity to do extensive study of sentiment surveys and get historical data, especially about 3 yrs ago. What I found was that these variables were key to obtaining the best contrarian indicators: * Ability to get updated data for free or at reasonable cost. * A consistent pattern of ranges in the data over periods of ten years or more. * Ability to get current data at weekly or more frequent intervals. * Generation of both buy and sell signals at least once a year. When all was said and done, the combination of the 3 indicators proved the best way of accomplishing all of the above.

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83838)	6/1/2003 11:34:35 AM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Painful as it is, here is the monthly update of my timing model. My 75% short position has remained in place through May as I've watched the Nasdaq make higher highs. Year to date, the timing model is up 7.6% vs qqq which is up 22.2%. My current short position is at an average of $26.99 so it is underwater by nearly 10%. In the past, I have had a few trades lose 10%, but it is quite unusual and always painful. This trade has been particularly painful as it has been in effect for a long time relative to most trades as I established the first 25% of the position back on March 20th. It will be quite an uphill battle for my model to outperform the market this year but I still have faith it will. Hopefully the transition of bear market to bull cycle has caused the model indicators to malfunction temporarily and we will back in tune with the market soon. In the meantime, here are I post my trades in bad times as I did in the good times. Market Timing Model: 2003 - Started year at 50% long with QQQ at $24.37: 2052 QQQ, $49,983 Cash - Jan 15 went to 25% short at $27.29: Short 971 QQQ, $79,463 cash. - Jan 28 went to 50% long at $24.80: long 2185 QQQ, $54, 180 cash - Jan 31 went to 100% long at $24.12: long 4431 QQQ - March 14th went from 100% long to 50% long at the open at $25.80. Now at $57137 in cash and 2216 shares QQQ. - March 18th went to 100% cash at the open at $26.88. Now at $116,693 cash. - March 20th went to 25% short at the open at $26.51. Now at 1100 QQQ short and $87,510 cash. - April 8th went to 50% short at the open at $26.18. Now at 2214 QQQ short and $58,330 cash. - May 5th went to 75% short at $28.38. Now short 1027+2214 shares. - June 1st update: $29,165 cash and 3241 qqq short at average price of $26.99 vs current qqq close of $29.79. Current value is $107,565 or up 7.6% vs qqq up 22.2%. Tom