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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83853)	6/1/2003 12:01:04 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Tom, good to see you. I was wondering if you'd ever tested your indicators on those rare "overbought thrusts" that can begin a bull phase. The reason I ask is I was reading recently that short-term BPs have been this high only 8 previous times in the last 35 years (sorry, I can't find more specific info on which BP) - but half of those occasions were at the start of major bull moves - Sept. 1970, Feb. 1975, Sept. 1982 and early 1991 - that barely pulled back from those levels, if at all. Just a question, and I hope your system gets back on track again soon too! Paul

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83853)	6/1/2003 12:23:35 PM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom, I realize you are testing a timing model, but... have you considered using stop-losses? How would your model have performed using various stop-loss criteria?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83853)	6/1/2003 9:37:23 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Painful as it is, here is the monthly update of my timing model. My 75% short position has remained in place through May as I've watched the Nasdaq make higher highs. Yeah.. I can see how painful it may have been.. I suspected a rally was in the making. I'm not implying that we're seeing a reversal of the overall bearish trend in the markets, but merely that we appear due for a major rally in the Nasdaq (at least 500 points or so, IMO). Breaking 1500 resistance should permit a run to 1700 and possibly 2000 before it has to test that next major resistance point at that level. Message 18898401 I still think the long term trend for the rest of the year is likely to the upside, given the following chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com But the weekly chart indicates you might have a chance to cover your shorts before you lose your shirt.. :0) bigcharts.marketwatch.com Hawk