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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (54023)	5/13/2003 12:02:23 PM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, I would have to respectfully disagree with your statement- “ Qualcomm's current market is all cellular subscribers, not just those that happen to buy its CDMA products” Qualcomm certainly never had the opportunity to sell CDMA products into the largest GSM market, Europe ( rightly or wrongly) due to government regulation which prohibits anything but GSM. Further, in the past Qualcomm along with many Asian companies were excluded from the GSM market due to excessive royalty rates imposed on all except those in the cartel. Only recently was Qualcomm able to overcome this obstacle with their cross licensing agreements with TXN, NOK etc which gives them royalty free access to GSM IPR. jim

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (54023)	5/13/2003 1:15:55 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The Addressable Market for Mobile Wireless Chipsets Mike, << I think it's inaccurate and misleading to place Qualcomm's current "market" as 150 million CDMA subscribers. Using that logic, we would say that Apple's market isn't all computer users; we'd say that it's only those that buy Apple computers. Qualcomm's current market is all cellular subscribers, not just those that happen to buy its CDMA products. >> I agree. The addressable market for mobile wireless chipsets is in handsets destined for new cellular subscribers and that portion of cellular subscribers that replace handsets. The addressable market is ~440+ million this year optimistically increasing to 500+ million by 2005. Tim Luke's reasonable estimates (4/24/03) for the market are below. As for the MSM6300, which addresses a nascent niche market, it will produce no significant revenue this year. Not one single handset powered by it has been announced, and only one handset manufacturer has announced plans to develop a handset based on it. Lehman Brothers Estimates of Global Wireless Handset Demand 2002 2003E 2004E 2005E Total Subscribers 1,110 1,265 1,401 1,525 New Additions 168 154 136 125 % of Total Unit Demand 42% 35% 29% 24% Replacement Handsets 233 285 340 392 % of Prior Year Subs 25% 26% 27% 28% % of Total Unit Demand 58% 65% 71% 76% Total Unit Demand (Sell-thru) 401 440 476 517 % Growth 5% 10% 8% 9% Total Inventory 54 54 55 59 Change in Inventory 2 0 1 4 Total Handset Units (Sell-in) 403 440 477 521 % Growth 12% 9% 8% 9% Wireless Handset Market Estimated at ~$65 Billion in 2003 Source: Company Reports and Lehman Brothers Estimated Handset Unit Market Share by Vendor for 2003 GSM CDMA 1. Nokia 52% 1. Motorola 21% 2. Motorola 15% 2. Samsung 20% 3. Siemens 13% 3. LG 18% 4. Samsung 11% 4. Nokia 13% 5. Sony Ericsson 3% 5. Sony Ericsson 4% - Other 6% - Other 24% Source: Lehman Brothers Global Wireless Infrastructure Market Share by Vendor for 2003 1. Ericsson 29% 2. Nokia 15% 3. Nortel 9% 4. Siemens 9% 5. Motorola 8% 6. Alcatel 6% 6. Lucent 6% 8. Samsung 3% - Other 15% Wireless Infra Market Estimated at ~$41 Billion in 2003 Source: Industry reports and Lehman Brothers Estimates ### - Eric -