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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9791)	5/13/2003 9:45:28 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Here's one talking about 36 fabs during the next year... siliconstrategies.com SANTA CRUZ, Calif. --- About 36 wafer fab projects are likely to get underway in the next 12 months, according market research company Strategic Marketing Associates (SMA) citing its own 'The Quarterly Spot Report on Semiconductor Fab Project'. The trend will be led by DRAM fabs changing over to manufacturing on to 300-mm diameter wafers, the SMA added. The fab projects include expansions, upgrades, additional fab lines and new construction. Another 24 fabs are due to begin production during the same period. As a result the SMA expects this fab activity to increase overall capital spending to $31 billion during 2003, up 16 percent on 2002, the organization said. Migration to 130-nanometer manufacturing process technology, increased interest in 90-nm manufacturing processes and the move to manufacture on 300-mm wafers are all expected to drive capital spending and new fab projects, SMA said. “DRAM manufacturers who need to switch to and ramp 300-mm production, will lead the way," said George Burns, SMA president, in a statement. “They need 300-mm to be competitive. And they're in a hurry,” he said. “But they're not alone. Foundries too, are adding capacity especially those not ranked in the top three. They don't believe any technology or customer is reserved for TSMC, UMC or Chartered Semiconductor.” The report also compares the ramp of 200-mm fabs versus 300-mm fabs. If 300-mm replaces 200-mm in a manner similar to which 200-mm replaced 150-mm, the industry could need an additional one hundred 300-mm fabs within the next 10 years, according to the SMA. 'The Quarterly Spot Report' is distributed via email to subscribers for a sum of $600 per year, the SMA said.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9791)	5/13/2003 10:03:47 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

Cary and Ian, I just read the article that Ian posted. I guess that I am very skeptical. How many fabs were suppose to be built/started/upgraded this year? As I stated before the issues are capacity and consumer demand. IF the global economy improves, perhaps there will be some investment in new fabs, assuming that chip companies are being profitable. Equipment upgrades? Yes, but staggered. I suspect that many up to date fabs will be able to use their current technology and will try to wring out next generation devices to maximize profits. I guess time will tell......BB