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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (98409)	5/16/2003 9:13:38 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

A bigger worry might be that factions turn to violence when they can't get what they want via the ballot box. The violence we can stop cold, B89. The new system will be a Federal one, with three regions voting for their one third. That stops an overall Islamic state.

To: Brumar89 who wrote (98409)	5/18/2003 5:38:19 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 281500

Since Shiites are 60% of the population, in order for that to happen, 5/6 of the Shiite population would have to vote as a unified bloc behind one party. You are assuming that they need 50% of the vote or more to win. This assumption is based in turn on the assumption that an election will be contested between only two parties, and that everybody else votes for the other party, an assumption that is totally, almost wildly, inappropriate. It is likely that there will be half a dozen or more parties in the picture, and in such a situation a coherent bloc with much less than 50% can easily win. Remember that there are two Kurdish parties, splitting that group, and any number of Sunni groups, none of which has emerged as a dominant force. I’d love to see a party emerge that defines itself on an ideological basis, not on ethnic or sectarian identity, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. Opposition groups were organized on clear ethnic/sectarian lines, and I expect this to carry over into political organization. Don’t assume that Shiite leaders, even those who detest each other, are incapable of temporary cooperation on pragmatic grounds. In a fragmented political environment, political advantage often accrues to the party with a simple, vigorous message, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a disparate coalition forming around the message “Iraq for the Iraqis”. Nationalism is a potent tool with very real appeal. Of course the coalition wouldn’t last long after an American departure, but as long as we’re there, it provides an easy political focus.