Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bid Buster who wrote (241129)	5/17/2003 11:38:44 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

eia.doe.gov EIA’s baseline outlook assumes that OPEC production will be sufficient to allow commercial oil inventories to build from their current very low levels (Figure 3), but that OPEC will cut back production to accommodate the return of Iraqi oil exports. Until these inventories are rebuilt above observed 5-year lows, WTI oil futures prices should remain around current levels and then gradually slide toward about $24 per barrel by the end of 2004 as Iraqi oil exports return.

To: Bid Buster who wrote (241129)	5/18/2003 12:28:49 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Deflation Is A Myth In an economy with a fiat money supply and a government that is allowed to operate with a deficit, such as that in the US, the idea that deflation is an unavoidable possibility is ridiculous. This is easily understood by looking at an extreme example. Suppose that the Federal Income tax is eliminated. The Federal government continues its current level of spending by financing its activity with debt. This would result in significantly more dollars chasing the same goods and services and would drive prices up. What cannot be changed is the contraction in the economy that is going to occur while we work through the malinvestment and debt that developed over the last decade. The Fed can and will trade a deflationary recession for an inflationary one (stagflation) as the lesser of two evils. As a consequence the dollar will continue its fall. Interest rates will rise as the significant amount of debt that is going to be incurred to finance the government comes to market. Any attempt to suppress long-term interest rates in such an environment will be both folly and futile. Representations that increased government spending will help the recovery are similarly ridiculous The long bond is going to be next years dot bomb. One thing the Fed does very well is creating bubbles.