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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (33864)	5/18/2003 2:06:01 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi KJC, <<gas... USD denominated source>> Yup. I think I better do some calculations on HGT and SJT of the US, just in case, for a hedge. Why take a chance:0? <<French clothing, German technology, Italian foodstuffs, Japanese electronics, etcetera are all produced under a different domestic currency that is currently rising against the US dollar. Maybe this is the reason behind the current bear market rally? If so, then the rally likely has more leg(s) remaining, and the correct short term play is to go long the US markets>> ... yes, yes, yes, and no, the Japanese electronics are made in China, its cost denominated in RMB, which is wrapped around the USD, and will not be allowed to strengthen against the USD anytime soon, so as to better extract J6P home equity for the purpose of Chinese infrastructure investments. Chugs, Jay

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (33864)	5/18/2003 2:08:07 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

we all seem to be sort of incensed at the way the dollar devaluation is showing its teeth. We cant have a cake and eat it too - think of all the complaining about J6P getting too much in debt and how bad it stands with the account balance and blah blah blah -. Now the pendulum is swinging back and we all - or some of us, I do 8:P - make big eyes. US equities - if the only one remaining at the table were J6P ... Of course, re having and eating the cake - a pie in the face is no fun, especially when laced with some hard, sharp objects...

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (33864)	5/18/2003 3:56:58 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

>>IF the price of natural gas rises (as expected) << what can go wrong with this assumption? Recession? I dont think J6P would be ready to freeze his behind through it... Did sensitivity study on Jay's numbers (just for Enervest). Seems like 1% increase in prices gives cca 2% in IRR. General price inflation makes much less dent... EDIT: Re Can$ / US$ exchange rate: "The swings of outrageous fortune" will probably not be excessive in the future. What does the crystal ball say?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (33864)	5/18/2003 4:29:27 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

Re. Canadian Golds: 1.) Many Canadian companies have their costs outside Canada and so the rise in the $CD could actually be a neutral or positive. 2.) To the extent something is valued as reserves in the Ground rather than on a net income PE basis, is not an asset in the Canadian soil soaring in value lately? 3.) Are not virtually all miners valued as asset in the ground at the moment... ie. call options? As for the Canadian O & G trusts, I would sumit that simply looking at POGas in $CD solves all valuation problems. From what I understand, the positive dynamics of the Gas market are there in any currency. Of course price controls by US govt might be a problem is POG really spikes I suppose. Also, what IS paid out in divi's is moving up in value to the US holder. And as always the Gas mkt can change... I'm assuming ceteris paribus... ie you want to own gas, & you're willing to take that risk. DAK