Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (487)	5/23/2003 6:42:33 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

Everyone except Taiwan has got a grip on sars. Taiwan, despite warning from everyone else, failed to get to grips with it. China is nearing 50% recovered = the transition point to defeating the bug. China 5271 cases 300 deaths 2445 recovered 2745 vs 5271. Thats over half. It looks as though they are going to win. Just a bit more effort. Taiwan still a shambles. The only place on earth. Come on Taiwan. Round up those needing quarantine and forget the traditional mystical tribal herbal mumbo jumbo which does nothing. Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (487)	5/23/2003 6:34:09 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

1000 deaths in the offing. who.int Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666] .23 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[689] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxx .28 May xxxxxxx [estimate extrapolated from the last week at 11 a day] Total cases 8117 Number of deaths 689 Number of recovered 4326 With 3791 still sick, and a 10% death rate, that means another 380 will die, just of those already sick. 689 + 380 = 1069. With 70 new infections a day right now, that's another 7 people a day doomed right now who aren't yet sick [or haven't been reported anyway]. If the infection runs another 150 days, [5 months], that'll mean about another 1000 dead. Therefore, there are going to be at least 2000 dead, not to mention 20,000 who were at least really sick and in many cases permanently injured and debilitated with reduced long term survival and life enjoyment prospects. Then, come October, winter will close in again in the northern hemisphere, dew points will drop, people will exhale misty breath and sars will get a new lease of life. But maybe the final tally will be more than 10%. It's seems to be [depending on what's counted as sars and what isn't] that the death rate is more like 15%. So we can expect 50% more than would occur with a 10% death rate. That means the October total might be 3000 dead = the same number as died in the Twin Towers. The world had better be ready for next winter. Mqurice