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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (491)	5/23/2003 9:41:09 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

OOops. Dr Urbani dead and now another big time virus fighting gladiator going down. They are supposed to know how to fight bugs. cnn.com <ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- An investigator with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is being flown home to the United States from Taiwan after developing symptoms of SARS, the respiratory disease he was treating when he fell ill. Dr. Chesley Richards was expected to reach Atlanta this weekend, according to a CDC spokesman. An ambulance aircraft was to leave Taiwan on what would be Friday afternoon Eastern time, and planned to stop several times to refuel and to allow the crew to step out of the aircraft and remove the protective masks they will be wearing during the flight. The epidemiologist was in Taipei, which has been hard-hit by the SARS epidemic, when he developed symptoms. The doctor reportedly had followed all recommended precautions to prevent contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome, including wearing protective garb when he was in medical facilities, the CDC director said. He developed a low-grade fever that went away, then returned, accompanied by a cough, said Dr. Julie Gerberding, the CDC's director. She said the man had been in Taiwan for several days, but she said she did not know when he arrived there. Taiwanese officials have been struggling to contain the disease, but the numbers keep climbing. Authorities said they have logged 55 "probable" new cases during the past day. Richards' illness deals a tough blow to Taiwan's efforts to contain SARS, because the doctor himself is an expert in disease control and was part of a team that had been assessing SARS-control procedures in the country. ... contd...> Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (491)	5/30/2003 8:14:34 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666] .28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxx .28 May xxxxxxxx Now for a long, slow process of attrition as the sick die and recover [with damage]. It seems that sars has been defeated, with only Taiwan still in the out of control phase, but rapidly becoming controlled - especially with other places showing control is possible, they'll be able to do it. October will be the test of success. Will the residual disease escape in the colder days of oncoming winter? I guess not. Mqurice