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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (508)	6/2/2003 8:45:19 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1070

Cumulative deaths and weekly deaths graphs: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[666] .28 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[745] ..2 June xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx[770] On a weekly basis: Deaths for the week. x = 10 deaths. z = early days, fewer than 10 per week. 26 Feb z ..5 Mar z 12 Mar z 19 Mar z 26 Mar x ...2 Apr xxx ...9 Apr xxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxx ..7 May xxxxxxxxxxxxx .14 May xxxxxxxxx .21 May xxxxxxxx .28 May xxxxxxxx ..4 June xxxxxx [estimate] The dopey doctors in Canada seem to be incompetent, causing the initial outbreak by negligence, then allowing another outbreak when they had it cornered. Impoverished Vietnam and other Asian countries dealt with it effectively. How come rich Canada can't beat it? Taiwan's making hard work of it too, despite the examples of other countries which beat it some time ago. who.int Mqurice

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (508)	6/3/2003 11:45:44 AM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 1070

I have to chime in again about China. They are keeping the numbers down by excluding people without a known chain of transmission from a defined SARS victim, and all people with mild symptoms that don't require hospitalization. >>WHO Questions China's Sharp SARS Falloff Tue June 3, 2003 06:50 AM ET GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organization (WHO) on Tuesday questioned a reported sharp fall in new SARS cases in China, the world's worst-hit country, saying it was "concerned" at how the counting was being done. The United Nations health agency has warned the only way to beat the potentially-fatal respiratory disease, which has no simple treatment, is through rigorous identification of cases and patients' immediate isolation. It fears that if the disease, which kills 15 percent of its victims, takes root in the vast Chinese countryside, it could become a permanent health threat around the globe where more than 8,300 people have already caught it. On Tuesday, China announced just three new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), two of them in Beijing. It has gone nine days in a row with fewer than 10 officially reported fresh infections. "We are concerned about how these cases are being counted...We do not know enough about where these numbers are coming from," WHO spokesman Iain Simpson told journalists. "It may simply be that there has been a dramatic drop off in the number of SARS cases, but clearly because of the way that SARS emerged in China, China has a credibility problem," he said. China, which has over 60 percent of the world's SARS cases, took four months to inform the WHO about the illness, believed to have begun last November in the south of the country. Simpson said the WHO was particularly concerned about the situation in the capital, adding WHO officials were working with Chinese health authorities to gather more information. More than 5,300 people have been infected with SARS in China and 334 people have died.<< asia.reuters.com My prediction is that this isn't going to work.