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To: elmatador who wrote (34374)	5/26/2003 6:37:53 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Oil and NG prices will start going up as production nears a peak, not when reserves near exhaustion. There is still vigorous demand growth in Asia. I think the production peak will occur sometime this decade.

To: elmatador who wrote (34374)	5/26/2003 10:01:38 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

you miss the pt, elmatador. Fuel cells aren't an alternative to fossil fuels -- they use fossil fuels -- fuel cells are only a different means for converting the chemical energy into electrical energy into mechanical energy and right now -- despite the nice "thermodynamic efficiency" of fuel cells converting the hydrogen gas into electrical energy and the low emissions (though, it is stupid to talk only of the environmental impact of the emissions, IMO) -- fuel cells are still not economic on a large scale ... Kyros is also correct in pointing out -- it is the peak of production that matters as far as the price of fossil fuels are concerned and it is likely we are nearing that peak. And if you think about it -- increasing the cost of natural gas or oil -- if the increases are concurrent -- does nothing to make fuel cells more economic. Now if oil became very expensive relative to the price of natural gas you might have some advantages for fuel cells in transportation -- but how likely is that??