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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Quincy who wrote (129435)	5/31/2003 10:49:52 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

I fear your enthusiasm for the 4G future ignores the observation that most people just don't want to learn to operate or finance a device large enough to need your 4G Don't you find it the least bit ironic that it wasn't so long ago you were lecturing me about lessons from history? A dozen years ago I had several GSM phones in my lab for live-air testing. They were the size of bricks, or bigger. And weighed more. More than two laptops. The power that the things consumed makes today's OFDM look efficient. And yet in less time than it will take Qualcomm to earn each shareholder $30 in profits, the things shrank down to fit on wrist watches. If you are right, then most people wouldn't have wanted to learn to operate GSM phones. Oh, gee... it didn't happen that way. It's going to be different this time? Yah, right. Technology evolves. Real fast. It gets smaller and lighter and cheaper and faster, until further evolution is irrelevant. At full investment rate, it moves by factor two every 18 months or so. Bet against that and you are bound to lose. Keep arguing about today if you like. But you are paying for a stock priced for performance a decade from now. If investment continues to pour into 4G technologies, then they will improve through four iterations of Moore's law. Factor 100 better than the best we can achieve today. As far as: Your claim that we enjoy "hotspots" as contextual is ludicrous based on the poor financial condition and utilization of hotspots outside of business campuses already constructed. The fact that the deployment of "hotspots" is occurring inside businesses and homes at a cost to those doing the deploying is prima facia evidence of contextual utility. Whether you can see it or not isn't my problem. Getting locked into looking for a successful WiFi carrier model to validate the future potential of OFDM and 4G is a like looking for your keys under a lamp-post simply because that's the only place you can see. Where you choose to look pre-selects what you will not be able to see. OFDM is rising as a future technology IN SPITE OF the absence of a carrier network. Not unlike the Internet. Or have you neglected that recent history lesson too? When things happen that seem to defy explanation, it is usually because the explainer doesn't comprehend what is going on. John