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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry J Costanzo who wrote (74943)	5/30/2003 2:55:08 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

Major OT! I have no issue with that post mchjc (as long as it is a weekend or late Friday thing-g). I am very aware of economic cycles and how they play out with respect to the markets, young whippersnapper or not (actually moving towards the "or not" category)-g. The issue (for me anyway) is the business cycle will not pick up as per usual. The warning signs are there mcjhc, they have injected everything they can with policy and they can't move the economy forward, au contraire it is getting worse if you believe the stats. My god, rates are at 50 year lows! This is why AG is suddenly talking deflation..he knows. The massive debt build-up of the last 10 years must be dealt with at both corporate and consumer levels. Looking at the balance sheets of the likes of GE, FORD, GM, (the latter two are technically insolvent already) and others, that process has yet to begin. Everyone keeps talking about hanging on until the business cycle pick up, I fear once it does not we will begin to see this debt implode and liquidity will dry up. This is the gist of the bear argument these days in a nutshell (its actually been the argument for years although bears always underestimate the power of inertia). If anyone has anything to add please do. As for the markets, if this was a true economic recovery, I would expect the markets to be lead by the big boys, not ASKJ and biotech. I think this is a very speculative corrective wave. I am open to the idea of a fresh bull, but technically we have a long way to go including correcting a breakdown of an 11 year uptrend line on the SPX which broke last year. I don't like to be pessimistic mcjhc, I just have to call it like I see it. I actually hope I am very wrong.