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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (83865)	6/14/2003 9:53:18 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There is Not as Much cash around as the Bulls Think, mywebpages.comcast.net ----- We can't count CD's & Bonds, as if they sell off interest rates go up.. Even money market funds are invested in such a way that to draw them down fast can effect the health of bonds. --- Another thing to watch is the spread on interest rates. This Bear mess started when short term rates inverted, ( short term went higher than long term ) Thanx to GreenSpam He wanted to dampen the market..and knew that would; he didn't mean to kill it. --- Rates look OK at this time..but we don't really have as much cash on the side lines as most people seem to think. Most State, County and City Governments are deep in the RED..and hiding a lot of bad news . For every Tax break The Fed gives, local governments are jacking up taxes twice as much and faster than the fed can cut. ---- State Pension funds are in deep shit.. some of them are trying to play catch-up this could lead to a real disaster down the road. ----- JP6 ( or the retail investor ) was tagged with the bubble top..but that is horse shit, it was the BIG Pension funds dumping bonds and jumping in the market just before the blow off top. ---- Jim PS there is one place Interest rates are still inverted.. BUT I'm not going to cut my own throat by posting it. as I'm getting over 4% on short term money. ---- Another thing a lot of the Money Market money is due to shorts..; well you say they will have to cover.. ( perhaps..) they will, but not like most people think, The shorts I'm talking about are BIG rolling shorts who sell puts aginst the short so it covers automatically if the market falls to that level..they are hedged with calls that lose value slower than the puts gain in a down market, the calls let them cover if the market goes up and then they can keep the put money..meanwhile they also make the interest off the money they got from the short sale.. Looking at the option premiums I can tell you that nothing is going to stop the BIG rolling shorts.. as they can still make money even in an up market. ( but not the little guy he will get killed ) ---- BTW a lot more money has to come into the market than goes out; , just to keep it from falling.. The market has almost a 10% overhead, take a look at all the commissions, and mutual fund fees.. So the old , for every seller there is a buyer , is a marketing piece of crapola... The market will sink of it's own weight unless more money is constantly pumped in . Jim