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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: thames_sider who wrote (100358)6/5/2003 12:16:57 PM
From: Bilow  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Hi thames_sider; Re: "It is still possible that if we - well, especially the US, but UK as well - start actually delivering on our earlier promises the mood might change in our favour. We could begin by at least getting basic services working so that normal life might resume, halting the looting, and getting a police, justice and legal system in place so that normal people would feel we had their interests at heart."

Let me try and describe the situation from an Arab point of view, maybe you can explain how it is that their viewpoints are going to change:

The US is the big ally of Israel, the sworn enemy of all the Arab people. The US chose Iraq to conquer because they have so much oil, and because Saddam was standing up against the Israelis. Now that the US is in Iraq, they will never let a true Iraqi government form, just a quisling at best. The US won't let the Iraqis vote according to their religion, this despite the fact that Bush chose the Republican party partly because of his religion. The US has bombed Iraq for 10 years, and really doesn't care whether civilians are killed or not. All they want is the oil. When the US came into Iraq, they were very careful to make sure that the oil installations were undamaged because that is what they cared about. As far as they are concerned, the Iraqis can live like animals, which is why they didn't care that Iraq's great library was burned to the ground by looters. They killed our sons, brothers and fathers, and now that they are in our country, standing around doing nothing except occasionally killing civilians, it is our golden opportunity to make them taste what they have done to us.

Now maybe we can win a few hearts and minds, and maybe we can't. But the fact is that there will always be a very substantial minority of Iraqis who will hate us. And the vast majority may not hate us, but won't be willing to stick their necks very far out to help us. When faced with having to report an Iraqi guerilla to a US occupying soldier, they will instead simply keep quiet, not risking the wrath of the Iraqi opposition, or the well known proclivity of US soldiers to imprison civilians for no good reason. In short, the vast majority will avoid us, and try to get on with their lives, just as they did under Saddam. But stop their friends and relatives who want to fight us? No they won't, any more than the peaceful Catholics in Northern Ireland, who wanted nothing other than to live lives of tranquility, actually helped the British government fight the IRA.

There are occasions when it is so obviously impossible to win hearts and minds that it shouldn't even be attempted.

Foreign boys with guns always piss off the locals. When the foreign boys speak another language, worship God differently, eat funny food, have disgusting sexual habits, and regularly shoot the locals at checkpoints its even worse.

The US military's choices in Iraq are few. They can increase the confrontations with Iraqis and teach them to hate us more, or they can reduce confrontations with Iraqis and let the country go to hell in a hand basket faster. Neither way will win the hearts and minds. And unlike Freshman Calculus, this problem has no solution.

Israel already tried the "treat them with kindness" routine on the Palestinians. The result was the Intifada, and now Israel is negotiating from a position of weakness. They're even pulling up settlements without the Palestinians stopping the terrorism. Our situation will eventually devolve to the same choice. Stay in Iraq and continue to bleed, or pull out and let the locals run the place against our interests.

-- Carl