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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High Country Trader who wrote (17305)	6/11/2003 12:49:41 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Am I looking for all the wrong reasons? Why another ST Short Trade? Normally, I would feel good about this counter-trend trade/ especially after they closed BOTH the SPX and NDX at the top tick for the day. But like last weeks counter trade, I have that sinking feeling in my stomach again. Even though I was fortunate enough to exit with a nice nimble profit. Instead of giving you all the reasons why I put on these short trades, I will only key you in on 1 (the expanded version): Last Thursday night, I mentioned it would not surprise me to see a 90% downside volume day within the next week: Message 19007925 The next day we got our blow off top and reversed. However, we never got any serious selling pressure (yet) to scare out longs and we have commenced this stealth move back up. The buying is there, no question, but is it running on fumes short term? The churning I have been talking about. Now flashback to the Bull launch off the December 1974 bottom. As you well recall, Investors Intelligence sentiment survey for Bearish advisors went from 49% + to 19% Bears in March 1975 (3 months). On March 24, 1975, we had 1 last 90% downside volume day to mark the low and then we took off again. This low occurred 4-5 (close/intraday low) trading days after the blow off top a week before. Compare today II Bearish advisors at 20.7% will be interesting if we crack into the teens tomorrow morning. We are also at that 3 month juncture in this stealth Bull off the March 11/12 2003 bottom. something has to give in this short term stand-off... a stampede of new Buyers(in addition to more short covering pain) or a heavy dose of selling to shake out some weak longs. In any event, market internals are excellent and the next leg up in this stealth Bull could take us to DOW 9750 and SPX 1060 and COMP 1820... some time in July.. Make no mistake, this is only a ST trade and...I DO want to get LONG again... but,,, maybe just my wishful thinking...