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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2572)	6/11/2003 9:46:09 AM
From: rsie	Respond to of 10065

Yes, But after 3 years of selling by almost everyone...the amount of $ on the side is huge....so this information is confusing at best and might be inappropriate here....was OK from 1990-2000, but not now ...just a thought, rich PS everyone I know and talked to did not follow brinkers advice because they did not want to commit....so they are slowly buying as they "feel" better about the market....so they did not follow the advice of the newsletter. If most people did not follow their newsletter advice, then the slow upswing in the market is showing this slow but sure result....investors who as a group are buying into the market as they see fit, are not following the gurus...This may be a very large amount of people and $....

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2572)	6/11/2003 10:54:00 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

Pete, One thing I think people miss is that bullish sentiment should be strong during a bull trend. Sure during the bear trend this type of indicator had timeable implications for a top. But now that the trend has changed this type of sentiment indicator is not as valuble as it was. Also this is just recommedation and not action. Action is evidenced by prices and not by what people say they are going to do or by what advisors advise them to do. Look what has happened to those people staying short through out this bull run. Every other day some indicator gets stretched to the max and what's happened. Nothing but continual price rises. The last post before this one has a lot of merit imo.

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (2572)	6/11/2003 3:05:42 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Pete: Thanks. The responses to your post speak volumes to me. Like I said last week, the extreme readings can get more extreme. Right now the four week moving average is a mind numbing 73.8%. The ten week is quite high but not mind numbing yet at 67.64%. I suspect that the four week moving average has not been this high since 1987 before the crash. It may have reached that high in early 1992. Whatever. The ten week was above 70% a few times from 1971 through 1984. I believe a close above 70% would represent a strong intermediate sell signal on that measure alone making no reference to Brinker's model but only to my own research. If you sold when the 10 dma reached 70%, you should be able to buy your stocks back at significantly cheaper prices in less than a year according to history from the late 60s to early 80s where these extremes were visited.